Hail in Florida, October 13, 2002

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
218 PM EDT SUN OCT 13 2002

ALREADY HAD A PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IN LEVY COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON ON TAIL END OF JET STREAK MOVING BY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE WITH PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...A FEW BECOMING STRONG WITH RAIN IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND
QUITE A BIT OF LIGHTNING.

CONVECTION SHOULD QUIET DOWN OVERNIGHT...BUT KICK BACK UP AGAIN
MONDAY AS PLENTIFUL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.

ALL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MULTIPLE
LOW CENTERS OVER THE EASTERN GULF MONDAY NIGHT...PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LOTS OF CLOUDS AND HIGH POPS...WITH TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE DOWN DURING THE DAY WITH LESS SUNSHINE.

DRYING KICKS IN BEHIND FIRST COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL BY THEN. THURSDAY MORNING
WILL FEEL NICE WITH TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE DRIER
AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH A SLOW WARM UP
TOWARDS NORMAL TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND.

MARINE: GRADIENT REMAINS REASONABLY LOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
WINDS PICK UP ON TUESDAY AS LOWS MOVE BY. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
SCEC WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY THEN.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
BKV 70/86/70/83 5667
TPA 74/88/74/84 5667
GIF 73/87/72/84 4557
SRQ 73/88/73/84 5667
FMY 73/88/73/85 5667

.TBW...NONE.

ALSHEIMER

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-131500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
552 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES...

HOT AND HUMID AIR WILL BE LIFTED BY THE COLLISION OF EASTERLY FLOW
WITH THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE TO PRODUCE MORE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

A FEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA BETWEEN
2 AND 4 PM.  THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND A
BRIEF DOWNPOUR.

BOUNDARIES FROM THESE STORMS WILL IGNITE MORE ACTIVITY OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.  STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
BY SUNSET IN AREAS WHERE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PROVIDES
ADDITIONAL LIFT.

THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTAIN FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...RAINFALL RATES OF 2 OR 3 INCHES PER HOUR...AND BRIEF
WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH.  CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATER THIS
EVENING.

WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS BEFORE
USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN GULF MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO INTENSIFY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...RESULTING IN NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS A GOOD PART OF
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE
STRONGER CELLS DEVELOP.

THE ENERGY PROVIDED BY THE DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO INCREASE THE THREAT
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION AS THE SITUATION UNFOLDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...CHECK OUT OUR WEBSITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW

BSG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN  FL
232 PM EDT SUN OCT 13 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0150 PM    OTTER CREEK               FL   .75 INCH HAIL
10/13/02   LEVY                           REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

0220 PM    LARGO                     FL   .75 INCH HAIL
10/13/02   PINELLAS                       REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER.

JTD