Rip Current in Florida, November 10, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
259 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2002

THINGS CONTINUE TO SET UP FOR A PROLONGED WEATHER EVENT STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON AND STRETCHING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  GFS AND ETA ARE
A BIT MORE INLINE WITH OVERALL PATTERN THRU 48 HOURS...THEN DIFFER
SLIGHTLY WITH TIMING...LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY LATE MONDAY.  OTHWERWISE...APPEARS THIS
WEATHER EVENT WILL GET KICKED OFF WITH A BANG AS INGREDIENTS FOR
POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS ACROSS MS AND AL COME TOGETHER FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THRU LATE TONIGHT...ALSO NOTED BY LATEST SVR WX OUTLOOK
(SWODY1).  LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS SPREAD NORTH TODAY AND PROVIDE PLENTY
OF FUEL.  SPARKS COME IN THE FORM OF A 90-100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET
WITH A 20+ UNIT EMBEDDED VORT MAX THAT CARVES OUT A DEEP UPPER TROF
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  RESULTING STRONG
UPPER DIFFUENCE WILL ENHANCE LIFT OVER AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH
2000+ CAPES BY THIS EVENING.  A 50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT
IN 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND 300-400 M2/S2 HELICITIES.  ALL ADDS
UP TO A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER MUCH OF MS
AND AL FROM THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT.  ALTHO EXACT TIMING OF THINGS IS
UNCERTAIN...APPEARS THE MAIN THREAT FOR THIS CWA WILL OCCUR FROM 4
PM THIS AFTERNOON THRU 2-4 AM LATE TONIGHT.  EXPECT A SQUALL LINE TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD AND MOVE INTO MS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.  AHEAD THE FRONT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
SHUD DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WITH EACH STORM HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SUPERCELL...BRINGING A THREAT OF TORNADOES TO THE AREA.  MAIN
THREAT HERE LOOKS TO BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT.  THEN THE
SQUALL LINE PUSHES INTO SE MS BY EARLY-MID EVENING...AND ACROSS SW
AL THRU MIDNIGHT.  THE SQUALL LINE WILL BRING ANOTHER THREAT OF
STRONG DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.  IT APPEARS THE GREATEST SEVERE
THREAT FOR OUR CWA WILL OCCUR FROM STONE AND GEORGE COUNTIES OF SE
MS TO NORTH MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES AND NORTHWARD...THEN ALONG
AND W-NW OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR TO GREENVILLE AND N-NE OF THERE.

AFTER A NIGHT OF SEVERE WEATHER...EXPECT A RAIN EVENT TO FOLLOW AS
THE FRONT SETTLES OVER THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF AL AND NW FL BY EARLY
MONDAY.  THEN THE MAIN SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO NORTHERN LA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE LA
COAST MONDAY EVENING.  PREFER THE GFS AT THIS POINT AND EXPECT THE
LOW TO TRACK NE INTO SOUTH GA SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.  EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINS ACROSS THE AREA MON AFTERNOON/MON
NIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER NW FL.  AT THIS TIME...A STABLE COOL
NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS INLAND AREAS SHUD KEEP ANY SEVERE
STORMS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND E-NE OF OUR AREA.  WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS TODAY...THEN LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS SUN
NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...THEN TAPERING POPS OFF W-E ON TUE AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY PUSHES EAST.

MARINE...INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS SUGGEST RAISING THE SCA
FLAG FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  ONCE RAISED...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST THRU TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FIRE...WINDS INCREASE TODAY WITH CALCULATED DISPERSION VALUES RISING
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS FOR FL ZONES.  WITH ONLY SCATTERED PRECIP
EXPECTED THERE TODAY...WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG FOR FL ZONES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.  WIDESPREAD RAINS ON MONDAY WILL PRECLUDE ANY FIRE THREAT
DESPITE EXPECTED HIGH DISPERSION VALUES ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

39/DARBE
PRELIMINARY CCF NUMBERS...
MOB ET 083/069 078/053 060 39368+
PNS ET 081/070 078/056 063 39368+
DTS ET 080/072 077/059 064 39368+
GZH ET 082/067 075/053 057 39478+
2R0 ET 083/064 072/047 056 39478+
61A ET 082/061 071/045 054 39478+=

.MOB...
AL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT GMZ630-650-670.
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT GMZ655-675.
     RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FOR HIGH DISPERSIONS FLZ001>006-008.
MS...NONE.

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-101900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
707 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND MOST OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT.  A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD.  THE STORMS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A SQUALL LINE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND PUSHES THROUGH A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS THE REGION.  STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS
OVERRIDING 20 MPH PLUS SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL FAVOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS.  IF SUPERCELL STORMS
DEVELOP...THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING ISOLATED
TORNADOES...DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA DURING THE EVENING AND LATE NIGHT HOURS.  THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDES ALL OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND THAT
PORTION OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A MOBILE
TO BAY MINETTE TO EVERGREEN TO GREENVILLE LINE.  THE MODERATE RISK
AREA HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...FROM ALONG
THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF CHOCTAW AND WILCOX COUNTIES NORTHWARD.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 5 AM EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS THE DRIVING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PULLS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...STORM SPOTTERS
AND HAM RADIO OPERATORS IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

.MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG NEAR THE COASTAL SECTIONS EARLY ON MONDAY.
THE FRONT WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A SERIES OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF LOUISIANA BY MONDAY
EVENING...AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
MONDAY NIGHT.  ALTHOUGH THE COOL NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE
SHOULD HINDER SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUST TO NEAR 50 MPH AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES
TOWARD THE AREA.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING...THEN SPREAD
WELL EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTH
WINDS WILL SPREAD COOL...DRY AIR OVER THE REGION.  THEREFORE...NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.