Funnel Cloud in Florida, June 12, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
230 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2002

CURRENTLY...SFC LOW HAS MOVE S-SW OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY NOW
LOCATED OFFSHORE OF ST. AUGUSTINE. RESULTANT CONVECTION HAS BEEN
SHOWERS FROM THE COAST INLAND TO SOUTHERN CLAY AND PUTNAM
COUNTIES...MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN MARION. CONVERGENT FLOW
ALONG THE WEST COAST IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE LOW LVL CIRCULATION.
TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE UPR 80S TO NEAR 90.

TONIGHT...00Z AVN BEST DEPICTED THIS MORNINGS 12Z SCENARIO WITH SFC
LOW OFFSHORE OF JACKSONVILLE. THE RUN ALSO INDICATED THE LOW MOVING
FURTHER OFFSHORE BY 18Z. THIS HAS SLOWLY HAPPENED PER LAPS ANALYSIS.
THEREFORE...WILL TREND TOWARD THE AVN GUIDANCE WRT SFC LOW MOVING NE
INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT. UKMET PREFERS NOT TO DEVELOP ANY CLOSED
LOWS LIKE THE OTHER MODEL FAMILIES IN THE SHORT TERM...AND DUE TO
OVERALL INCONSISTENCY WRT TO THE SFC LOWS WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS
SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE. TONIGHT HOWEVER...MODELS IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO N GOMEX. MEAN LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINS GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTH AS WEAK IMPULSES RIDE OVER WEST
SIDE OF UPR LVL ATLANTIC RIDGE.

THU & THU NIGHT...WARM DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S AS ATLANTIC
HIGH AXIS MOVES NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN FL WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST. A THERMAL LOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL ENHANCE SEA
BREEZE COLLISIONS ALONG WITH A WEAK SFC FLOW. CONVECTIVE MOTION WILL
BE LIGHT TO THE E-NE.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...FRI AFTERNOON COULD BE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S ENHANCING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IN A MOISTURE RICH ATMOS WITH PWS NEAR 2 INCHES. MODELS
(AVN/ETA/META/UKMET) ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT WRT TO STRENGTH OF THE
FRONT AS WELL AS TIMING INDICATING THE BOUNDARY THROUGH CENTRAL GA
BY 18Z FRI. BY 00Z SAT THE FRONT PRESSES THROUGH THE GA ZONES AND
WILL BE OVER NE FL BY 12Z SAT. CHC POPS ACROSS THE BOARD WITH 50% GA
AND NE FL...AND 40% SOUTHERN FL ZONES.

SAT...COLD FRONT SLOWLY PRESSES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING NEAR 90. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. CHC POPS FOR FL ZONES 30-50%.

EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES MERGES
WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH MON AS THE COLD FRONT DEGRADES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA. WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NO POP SUN AND MON.
LATE MON THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SFC LOW NEARS AL AN UPR LVL TROUGH
TILTS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
WED. CHC POPS AND PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR TUE AND WED ALL
ZONES. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S AND HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S. SUN AND MON MORN MAY BE A BIT COOLER IN THE LOWER
60S WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGH BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

MARINE...EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 FT WITH SEAS 4 FT. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW WITH A SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON. NO HIGHLIGHTS.

PRELIM...
AMG BB 069/095 071/093 072 24033
SSI BB 073/089 074/090 074 24022
JAX BB 070/092 073/093 072 24233
SGJ BB 074/090 074/092 074 24343
GNV BB 070/094 072/093 073 24353
OCF BB 071/094 073/094 073 24453=

.JAX...
.GA...NONE.
.FL...NONE.

BROYLES/CARROLL

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-122200-

NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1145 AM EDT WED JUN 12 2002

...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA EAST OF INTERSTATE 75.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A
JACKSONVILLE BEACH TO PALATKA LINE. HOWEVER...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TODAY SO SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

CARROLL