Hail in Florida, June 10, 2002

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
149 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2002

CURRENTLY...LAPS SOUNDING DATA DEPICTS AN INCREASING MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE FA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE AND
88D RETURNS CONFIRM THIS WITH AN EXPANDING AREA OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NOW APPROACHING MY INTERIOR COUNTIES FROM THE
EAST. AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES I EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION FIRE OFF...ESPECIALLY JUST WEST OF I-75 CORRIDOR BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE GETS INVOLVED. BASED ON THIS
WILL ADVERTISE HIGHEST EVENING POPS OVER COASTAL ZONES...AND SLIGHTLY
LOWER INTERIOR. WITH THE COOL/DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...SO STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. BY LATER THIS EVENING ALL CONVECTION WILL
WIND DOWN WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM...A WET SCENARIO APPEARS TO SHAPING UP FOR THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SOME BENEFICIAL RAINS
POSSIBLE. MODELS THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO HOW
MUCH RAIN THE FA WILL ACTUALLY SEE. THE ETA/MESO-ETA AND NGM CONTINUE
ALONG SIMILAR TRENDS WITH MOVING THE UPPER LOW/SHEAR AXIS EAST OF
THE FL PENINSULA...AND THE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMAS
SWWD TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST UNDER THE SERN
U.S. UPPER RIDGE CROSSING THE S-CENTRAL PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS. ON THE OTHER HAND THE AVN CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREAS FORMING ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OFF THE SE FL COAST
MOVING THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES NEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE AVN SOLUTION
WOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE FA ON THE DRIER SIDE OF THESE FEATURES
MENTIONED ABOVE...AND THUS LOWER POPS AS REFLECTED BY THE MAV
NUMBERS. HOWEVER GIVEN THE SERN UPPER RIDGE POSITION AT THIS TIME...I
AM INCLINED TO FAVOR A WEST NORTHWEST MOVEMENT TO THE UPPER LOW/SFC
FEATURES ADVERTISED BY THE ETA/MESO-ETA/NGM. IN ADDITION THE AVN HAS
BEEN DEPICTING THESE LOWS NOW FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS...AND NOTHING OF
SIGNIFICANCE HAS YET DEVELOPED. WITH ALL OF THIS SAID WILL LOOK FOR
INCREASING MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO THE FA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH ABOVE CLIMO POPS EXPECTED. FWC/ETA/MAV TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO BE CLOSE...SO WILL USE A BLEND IN MOST AREAS.

EXTENDED...(FRI-MON)...LATEST AVN CONTINUE TO BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
RUNS AND CLOSE TO THE 00Z MRF SOLUTION IN DEPICTING A FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
LATEST AVN CONTINUES TO DEPICT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NRN
PENINSULA ON SATURDAY AND MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA ON
SUNDAY. IF THE AVN/MRF SOLUTIONS PAN OUT MOST OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES
WOULD EXPERIENCE A DECREASE IN POPS AS A SW-WLY STEERING FLOW
DEVELOPS WHICH WOULD FAVOR INTERIOR ZONES. LIKE YESTERDAY I STILL
THINK THE AVN/MRF SOLUTIONS ARE OVERDOING THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH GIVEN THE TIME OF THE YEAR...SO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
NEAR CLIMO-POPS THROUGHOUT UNTIL FUTURE MODEL RUNS DICTATE OTHERWISE.

MARINE...IN THE NEAR TERM WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE EAST
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST AS WE HEAD TOWARDS WEDNESDAY.
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE EACH
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING...AM EXPECTING ANOTHER SURGE
(WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS AND GUSTY) AFTER SUNSET AS THE EAST
COAST BOUNDARY MOVES OFFSHORE. BY THE END OF THE WEEK SFC RIDGE
POSITION AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NW...WILL RESULT
IN A SOUTH THEN SW-WLY FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA AS WE MOVE
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AT THE MOMENT WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED.

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

PRELIMINARY #S
BKV 069/091 069/091 3535
TPA 072/091 073/090 3546
GIF 072/091 073/092 2536
SRQ 072/090 072/089 3546
FMY 072/092 073/090 4657

.TBW...NONE.

MCMICHAEL