Damaging Wind in Florida, July 17, 2002

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
312 AM EDT WED JUL 17 2002

CURRENTLY...NUMEROUS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND WEAK VORT AXIS ALOFT
AIDING IN CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING AS EVIDENT ON 88D LOOP WHICH
DEPICTS SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS BREAKING OUT OVER NORTHERN POLK
COUNTY...WITH OTHER AREAS OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY WEST TO EASTERN MANATEE COUNTY AND THEN SOUTH TO THE FORT
MYERS AREA. WEAK N-NE STEERING FLOW IS PUSHING THIS ACTIVITY SLOWLY
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW MORNINGS...VERY WARM AND
STEAMY CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE FA WITH TEMPS 80 WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE UPPER 70S. AS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FIRE OFF AS MORE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
TAKE PLACE...SO WILL LEAVE OUT TIMING OF PRECIP IN ZONES.

SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL PERSIST BUT
RETROGRADE SLOWLY NW TO THE N-CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. WEAK
VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING S-
SWWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENINSULA THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN A
50H SHEAR AXIS SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA ON FRIDAY. THESE
FEATURES ALONG WITH PWS 2 AND MESO-SCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
SHOULD RESULT IN POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE (30-50%) FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK NE-NLY STEERING FLOW WILL
FAVOR SLOW MOVING STORMS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO LATER
THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE WARM WITH LOWER 90S
COASTAL...AND MID 90S INTERIOR. BLEND OF FWC/MET/MAV TEMPS HAVE BEEN
DOING FAIRLY WELL THE LAST FEW DAYS...SO WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM
THEM.

EXTENDED(SAT-TUES)...LATEST AVN REBUILDS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FA AS
WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING MID LEVEL
TEMPS AS WELL AS DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE SE...MAY AGAIN TEND
TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH PWS REMAINING IN THE
1.6 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE AN DAILY MESOSCALE BNDRY INTERACTIONS EXPECTED
WILL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE FOR THE TIME BEING AND KEEP SCATTERED
DIURNAL POP MENTION IN PLACE.

MARINE...OTHER THAN A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CONVECTION THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED.

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS TODAY OR THURSDAY.

PRELIMINARY #S
BKV 094/075 094/074 4242
TPA 092/078 091/078 4242
GIF 095/076 094/076 5343
SRQ 092/077 091/077 4242
FMY 094/077 093/076 5353

.TBW...NONE.

MCMICHAEL

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-171530-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
608 AM EDT WED JUL 17 2002

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY...
...HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...

WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL THEN
DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SO BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS WILL RESIDE
OVER WEST COASTAL LOCATIONS.

WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL PROMOTE SLOW MOVING STORMS WHICH WILL RESULT
IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THESE HEAVY RAINS IN COMBINATION WITH
SATURATED GROUNDS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AS WELL AS THE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND INTERSECTION. IN ADDITION FREQUENT DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY THE
THUNDERSTORMS.

WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS
BEFORE USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORMS ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN SOAR INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST...AND MIDDLE 90S
OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. THESE TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES OF
100 TO 105 DEGREES.

IF YOU MUST BE OUTDOORS TODAY...DRINK PLENTY OF WATER...WEAR
LIGHTWEIGHT AND LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING. RESERVE STRENUOUS EXERCISE
FOR EARLY MORNING OR THE EVENING HOURS. IF YOU WORK OUTDOORS...TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE...DRINK PLENTY OF WATER...AND DO NOT
OVER EXERT YOURSELF. REMEMBER TO BRING YOUR PETS INDOORS.

MCMICHAEL

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)