Damaging Wind in Florida, July 13, 2002

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
918 AM EDT SAT JUL 13 2002

MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS PWS AT 2.14 INCHES...GIVING A DARN GOOD
REASON FOR THE WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE RAIN TO
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS MORE CENTRAL AND NORTH COASTAL...AND
DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTH WHERE IT HAS NOT RAINED YET.
RAISED POPS ON MORNING UPDATE. GETTING GOOD GUSTS WITH THE SHOWERS...
WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING SINCE SOUNDING SHOWS 30 KNOTS OFF THE
SURFACE.

MARINE: TIDES RUNNING A FOOT OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE TAMPA
BAY AREA NORTH AS CONNECTIVELY INDUCED GUSTY SSW WINDS HAVE RAISED
THE NEAR SHORE WATER LEVELS. AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INLAND...THE
WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN AND THE WATER LEVELS SHOULD SLOWLY COME BACK
DOWN. MAY ISSUE ANOTHER MWS AROUND NOON IF THE WATERS LEVELS ARE
STILL UP...BECAUSE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES START RISING AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.

WHILE IT IS GUSTY AND ROUGH AT TIMES...THE SUSTAINED WINDS AWAY
FROM THE CONVECTION ARE BELOW ANY HIGHLITE CRITERIA. MAY BEEF UP THE
WIND GUST WORDING...BUT SEE NO REASON TO PUT UP FLAGS AS SUSTAINED
WINDS AND SEAS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE (ONLY 3.6 FOOT SEAS AT BUOY
42036 WITH 10 KNOTS SUSTAINED).

.TBW...NONE.

ALSHEIMER

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-131400-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
530 AM EDT SAT JUL 13 2002

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH THE ALREADY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR COUNTIES BY LATER IN THE MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. REMEMBER...ALL THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS AS SOON
AS YOU HEAR THUNDER OR SEE LIGHTNING.

FOR MARINE INTEREST...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR WATERSPOUT
FORMATION THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS OR GREATER WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

MORALES