Tornado in Florida, December 31, 2002

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN
1005 PM EST TUE DEC 31 2002

THE STRONG SQUALL LINE WHICH APPROACHED THE TAMPA BAY AREA EARLIER
THIS EVENING WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVED ONSHORE...MOST LIKELY DUE TO
THE COOLER GULF WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND A BAND OF
CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF IT. CURRENTLY 88D DEPICTS A
LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WITH ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUING TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AS I WRITE. 88D VWP SHOWS FLOW HAS BECOME MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL COMPARED TO THE 00Z SOUNDING WHICH SHOWED STRONG
VEERING WITH HEIGHT...SO THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE ON THE WANE...
BUT RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS MAINTAIN IMPRESSIVE LARGE
SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

TRAINING OF CELLS HAS ALREADY PROMPTED FLOOD WARNING FOR PINELLAS...
HILLSBOROUGH...AND MANATEE COUNTIES...WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
AS MUCH AS 6 INCHES HAS ALREADY FALLEN. BANDS OF HEAVY RAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAIN ACROSS PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...AND MANATEE
COUNTIES MAKING FOR MORE FLOODING PROBLEMS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS (2AM)...SO WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE...AND MAY ALSO
EXTEND THE FLOOD WARNING AS WELL. THERAFTER THE RAIN SHOULD BECOME
LIGHTER THE REST OF THE NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINS STRONG
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW OVER THE GULF WATERS HAS ALREADY CAUSED
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG MANATEE...PINELLAS...HERNANDO...
HILLSBOROUGH...CITRUS AND PASCO COUNTIES WHERE A COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CURRENT READINGS SHOW
WATER LEVELS RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT AN A HALF ABOVE NORMAL. WITH THE
UPCOMING HIGH TIDES BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT ADDITIONAL RISES IN
WATER LEVELS WITH MORE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...SO
WILL KEEP THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH AND HEAVY SURF ADVISORY IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR ANOTHER HOUR BEFORE
UPDATING ZONES.

MARINE...C-MAN AND OFFSHORE BUOYS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. DEEPENING SFC LOW TO THE NW WILL KEEP THE
GRADIENT TIGHT OVERNIGHT AS FLOW GRADUALLY VEERS INTO THE SOUTHWEST
AND WEST. NO CHANGES PLANNED IN THE 1030 PM UPDATE.

.TBW...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR COASTAL ZONES OVERNIGHT.
    ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 60
       NM...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.
    ...FLOOD WATCH OVERNIGHT ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT CHARLOTTE LEE AND
       HIGHLANDS
    ...HEAVY SURF ADVISORY ALL GULF COASTAL AREAS.

MCMICHAEL

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055-056-060>062-065-311615-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
515 AM EST TUE DEC 31 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TONIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AND WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY TONIGHT.  A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...REACHING THE EASTERN
GULF WATERS AND COASTAL AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY IN THE
EVENING...THEN PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATER IN THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF NEW YEARS DAY.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
BE STRONG WINDS. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND SOME HAIL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE
DAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON...AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO
7 TO 10 FEET. WIND GUSTS MAY REACH GALE FORCE STRENGTH...35 TO 45
KNOTS...BY THIS EVENING.

FOR COASTAL RESIDENTS...TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED ABOVE
NORMAL BY AT LEAST 2 TO 3 FEET FOR LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL GENERALLY OCCUR
BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY EVENING...WHICH COINCIDES WITH
THE TIME SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE.  A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

FINALLY...RESIDENTS LIVING NEAR AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL ALSO
NEED TO CONTINUE MONITORING WATER LEVELS...GIVEN THE THREAT FOR AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THE PAST FEW RAINFALL EVENTS
HAVE ALREADY PUSHED SEVERAL RIVERS TO FLOOD STAGE OR ABOVE...AND
MANY OTHERS ARE NEAR FLOOD LEVEL. THEREFORE...ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE MORE RIVERS AND STREAMS TO FLOOD...AND
AGGRAVATE FLOODING PROBLEMS ON RIVERS ALREADY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

STAY TUNED THE LATEST STATMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AND LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED BY LATER TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW

MORALES/DEESE