Funnel Cloud in Florida, August 28, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 28 2002

CURRENTLY...DRIER (PWAT 1.85) ON THE KJAX 12Z SOUNDING REFLECTS THE
PUNCH OF DRY AIR OVER THE CWFA DEPICTED ON WV IMAGERY WRAPPING
AROUND THE UPR LOW OVER KY & TN. THIS PUNCH WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN THIS AFTNS CONVECTION ACROSS
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND GA...ALTOUGH LACK OF CONVECTION ATTM OVER
INTERIOR GA DUE TO PRESENCE OF MORN CLDS INHIBITING INSOLATION. SCT
TS/SHRA ARE MOVING E-NE OVER N FL & COASTAL GA IN VERY LIGHT SFC
FLOW ALONG A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO N OF SAV.
THUS WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR CONVECTION FOR MINOR FLOODING. TEMPS
ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH MID 70 DEG DEW PTS.

TONIGHT...WILL ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES...BUT ANTICIPATE SHRA/ISOLD TS TO PERSIST OVER GA AND
INTERIOR FL TONIGHT WITH PVA ROTATING OVER THE AREA ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE UPR LOW AND ADDED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH
EXTENDING THROUGH S GA.

THU...SFC LOW LINGER ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE WITH THE UPR LOW
PULLING NWRD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. PWATS DECREASE TO NEAR 1.7 WITH
SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT AT H5. ALTHOUGH LOWER MOISTURE AND MORE UPR LVL
STABILITY IN PLACE...IMPULSES ON THE S SIDE OF THE UPR LOW WILL
ROTATE OVER THE WSTRN ZONES ENHANCING AN EXPECTED WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE COLLISION IN THE VICINTY OF THE SFC TROUGH AXIS. WILL TREND
TOWARD HIGH CHC POPS FOR SUWANNEE VALLEY SWRD & GA...THEN CHC FOR
REMAINING FL ZONES.

FRI & SAT...MODELS PINCH OFF ENERGY FROM CURRENT UPR LOW OVER TN AND
ADVECT IT NEWRD AS H5 HIGH PRESS BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FROM
THE ATLANTIC. THE SFC LOW BECOMES DIFFSUE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
STATES WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS INTO NEW
ENGLAND. DESPITE THE SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT OVER THE CONUS...THE AVN AND
ETA/NGM SOLUTIONS DIFFER WRT THE APPROACH OF AN EASTERLY WAVE. THE
ETA/NGM FAMILIES DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OVER S FL FRI...WITH ENERGY
ADVANCING NWRD ALONG THE FL EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AVN
HOWEVER REPRESENTS THE ESTERLY WAVE AS SUSTAINING ITS FORM AND
AFFECTING THE SE CONUS COAST SAT. DESPITE THE DIFFERING TROPICAL
SOLUTIONS...A E-SE PRESS GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AS MEAN
LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE ATLANTIC. WILL WORD FOR INCREASING
CLDS AND 50/40% PRECIP FL/GA FRI. SAT WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLDY AND
SIMILAR POP DISTRIBUTION.

EXTENDED...STACKED RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CWFA THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE LOW LVL AXIS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL BRING LOW LVL SE FLOW TO THE AREA ENHANCING SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FL WEST COAST. THE H5 HIGH SHIFTS SWWRD TO
CENTER OVER THE REGION MON WRAPPING DRIER AIR OVER S FL WITH
MOISTURE INCREASING TO THE NORTH IN ADVANCE OF A SFC TROUGH
APPROACHING EASTERN SEABOARD. UPR DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE SFC FEATURE AS LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS MID WEEK.
WILL WORD FOR NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND POPS.

MARINE...NO HEADLINES.

PRELIM CCF...
AMG TT 071/089 071/090 071 24353
SSI TT 074/088 075/087 076 24243
JAX TB 073/089 073/089 073 24243
SGJ TB 073/087 074/087 074 24243
GNV TT 072/090 072/089 073 24353
OCF TT 072/090 072/089 073 24353

.JAX...
.GA...NONE.
.FL...NONE.

BROYLES/PETERSON

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-282200-

NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
NOON EDT WED AUG 28 2002

...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA...DRIFTING
WEST...WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DUE TO THE UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND DRIER AIR ALOFT...A COUPLE OF STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS.

STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

PETERSON