Hail in Florida, August 2, 2002

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
230 PM EDT FRI AUG 2 2002

CURRENTLY...LOW AND MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES TO STRETCH ACROSS
NC FL WITH 500 MB VORT EVERGY DROPPING SW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND NE INTO THE ATLC. WEAK SFC LOW APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO UNDERNEATH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SWATH
OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE AREA HAS PRODUCED AN EARLIER START TO THE
CONVECTION TODAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH ISOLATED
SEVERE ESP AS THEY INTERACT WITH THE EAST COAST BREEZE. 60 MPH
DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ISOLD SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTN AND EARLY EVE. BUT AS IS TYPICAL DURING OUR FL SUMMERS...
LIGHTNING IS THE PRIMARY WEATHER THREAT TO LIFE AS WELL AS A
SIGNFICANT WEATHER THREAT TO PROPERTY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO A
CONCERN GIVEN THE SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.

WEEKEND...SFC LOW DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL PUSH WEST AWAY
FROM THE AREA AS A RIDGE AXIS NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE
TROUGH AXIS AND ITS ASSOCD MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL SHIFT NORTH
AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL PRODUCE
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL SAT ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS...BUT
DECREASE TO AT OR BELOW NORMAL CHANCES SUN. SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP
EACH DAY WHICH WILL HELP INITIATE OR ENHANCE ONGOING CONVECTION.

MON-FRI...SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS TREK WEST ACROSS THE
GULF COAST AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUBBLE HIGH. AVN IS
QUITE DRY THROUGH WED. MAGNITUDE OF DRYING APPEARS A BIT MUCH BUT
AGREE WITH THE IDEA THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AT LEAST
ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH EARLY SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND INLAND
PENETRATION. BY THU/FRI MOISTURE RETURNS IN THE FORM OF A
DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHED SOUTH BY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE GREAT LAKES.

MARINE...STRONG CONVECTION WILL AFFECT INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE
WATERS THIS EVE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL FORM NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS ESP SOUTH LEG.

PRELIM...
DAB TB 072/089 073/090 073 5644
MCO TB 073/090 074/092 074 5634
MLB TB 074/090 075/090 075 5543=

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...KELLY
AVIATION/FIRE WX...BRAGAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED TIME OF LAST ENTRY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
314 PM EDT FRI AUG 02 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

230 PM     MELBOURNE                 FL   FLOODING
08/02/02   BREVARD                        PUBLIC AND PD REPORTS
                                          STREET FLOODING. POWER
                                          OUTAGES, STREET LIGHTS
                                          AND STOP LIGHTS OUT DUE
                                          TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

233 PM     PALM BAY                  FL   FLOODING
08/02/02   BREVARD                        STREET FLOODING AND POWER
                                          OUTAGES.

247 PM     SEBASTIAN                 FL   FLOODING
08/02/02   INDIAN RIVER                   SEBASTIAN PD REPORTED
                                          LOCALIZED FLOODING AND
                                          ONE HALF INCH HAIL. STOP
                                          LIGHTS OUT DUE TO
                                          LIGHTNING.

304 PM     PALM BAY                  FL   FLOODING
08/02/02   BREVARD                        PUBLIC REPORTS STREET
                                          FLOODING IN THE VICINITY
                                          OF PORT MALABAR ROAD.