Wildfire in Delaware, February 24, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
315 AM EST SUN FEB 24 2002

MILDER DAY ON TAP FOR OUR CWA TDY...WE CAN A FEW MORE DEGREES AWAY
FROM THE CST ON MON AND TUE AND THEN OUR WX GETS INTERESTING FOR TUE
NGT AND WED WITH THE MDLS SHOWING MORE HINTS AT 2NDRY CYCLOGEN AND
THE PSBLTY OF RAIN CHGG TO SNOW OR SHSN B4 ENDING ALL ZONES. THIS
REVERTS BACK TO THE 00Z RUNS ON FRI VS THE TAMER SOLNS FROM LAST
NGT.

ONCE AGN TDY AIR MASS OVR OUR CWA WILL BE VERY DRY AND WITH THE WRN
ATLC LOW PULLING FTHR OFSHR...WE SHLD SEE LTL IF ANY CI.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE REACHED ON MERCURY...THUS SUNNY LOOKS
PRETTY GOOD. BASED ON THE WRMING OF THE H8 TEMPS AND 1000-850MB
THICK WE SHLD SEE ABT A 5 DEG RISE IN MAX TEMPS FROM YDA. THIS IS IN
LINE WITH THE CUR GUID AND FCST. THERE IS A PSBLTY TAFTN THAT THE
L/V WINDS MIGHT LEAVE SOME OF THE COOL AIR IN THE VLYS. FCST CONFID
THO NOT THAT HIGH TO KNOCK DOWN THE MAX TEMPS IN THOSE ZONES.

SFC RDG RMNS ALG THE CST TNGT AND SHLD PROVIDE FOR IDEAL RDTNL
CONDS. THE MDLS CONT TO BACK OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF HI CLOUDINESS IN
RETURN/WAA FLOW. THUS WE WILL CONT CUR FCST TREND OF PTLY CLDY SKIES
FOR ONLY OUR FAR NRN ZNS AND MOCLR ELSW. PRFR TO DROP MIN TEMPS TO
THE DEWPTS WITH GIVEN LGT WINDS. ONSHR FLOW LTR THIS AFTN WILL ADD A
DEGREE (NO PUN INTENDED) OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE MINS IN THE INLD
ZONES JUST AWAY FROM THE CST.

RDG LINE ALF WILL SLIDE E OF OUR CWA ON MON...SO MORE HI LVL CLDS
SHLD MOVE INTO THE RGN. EVEN SO LLVL THICK AND H8 TEMPS WARM ENUF TO
BOOST MAX TEMPS ABT ANOTHER 5-7F ABV TDY/S MAX TEMPS...PLENTY OF MID
50S TO ARND 60 SANS ELEVATION. CSTL ZONES WILL BE HELD DOWN BY ONSHR
SERLY FLOW. EVEN SO WATER TEMPS ARE IN THE LWR TO MID 40S...WRMR
THAN NML FOR THIS TIME OF YR. CUR PLANS ARE TO GO WITH THE WRMR MAVS
INLAND AND CLSR TO THE FWCS NEAR THE SHORE. THERE SHLD BE MORE WIND
MON AFTN AND THUS DO NOT FEAR COOL AIR COULD BE TRAPPED.

NO BIG CHGS FOR MON NGT AS SOME LO AND MID LVL MSTR WILL STREAM OUR
WAY. SKIES S/B PTLY CLDY. GUID MINS LOOK RSNBL AS THEY DO NOT BOTTOM
TEMPS OUT.

LATEST PMDHMD PRFRS THE SLOR AVN SOLN WITH THE UPCOMING SYS AS THE
FCSTD TROF IS DEEPER. GIVEN THE DEEPER TREND IN THE MED RNG
MDLS...WE WILL GO WITH IT AND PULL THE MNTN OF PCPN OUT OF THE SERN
HALF OF OUR CWA FOR THE DAYLIGHT HRS ON TUE. FULL SUN MAXT MACROS
ARE IN THE 60S. WHILE WE DO BLV THE AVN CLOUDINESS IS OVERDONE IN
THE CSTL PLAIN ZONES...WE WILL COMP BTWN THE MACROS AND MAV GUID
FOR MAX TEMPS.

THE WX GETS A BIT MORE INTERESTING THEN FOR TUE NGT AND WED. THE ETA
WHICH WAS FASTER BCMS SLOR THAN THE AVN IN ITS EXTENSION. ALL THE
MDLS EITHER DVLP A TRUE 2NDRY OR HAVE ENOUGH BAGGINESS TO IMPLY
WAVES ON THE CDFNT. THE CANADIAN SEF RMNS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...
ALTHOUGH ITS ENSEMBLE RUNS SHOW IT AS THE MOST EXTREME OF THE MDL RUN
SOLNS. IT CLOSES THE LO SO FAR W OF US THAT IT WRAPS WARM AIR IN
FROM THE ATLC AND IS ABT 12HRS SLOR THAN THE AVN WITH BRINGING A CHG
TO SNOW. THE AVN IS BY FAR THE COLDEST TUE NGT AND WED THAN EITHER
THE NAVY NOGAPS...CAN SEF OR ETA EXTENSION. W/O MAKING DRASTIC CHGS
TO THE EXTENDED EVEN WITH THE WRMR SOLNS LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A
CHC TO STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT PCPN CHGS TO SNOW B4 IT ENDS. THIS MAY
BE THE ONE OCCASION OUT OF 10 WHERE THE OPPOSITE OCRS...BUT THE
AVN/MRF ALMOST ALWAYS IS TOO FAST WITH ADVECTING COLD AIR IN. EVEN
THE MRF/S MOS GUID HAS RAIN AS PTYP IN PHL 12Z WED WITH AN H8 TEMP
OF -8C. WHL THE AVN/MRF MAY IN THE LONG RUN BE RIGHT WITH THE
COMPLETE TURNOVER...FOR NOW WE ARE TEMPERING IT USING ITS OWN
GRIDDED SFC TEMPS AS A GUIDE FOR THE CHGOVR TO SNOW. ON WED DAY
THERE COULD BE SOME HEFTY SHSN IF THE DEEPER H5 LOW AND STG PVA MOVE
THRU OUR CWA. CUR PLANS FOR SIMPLICITY SAKE IS TO JUST MNTN SHSN TO
ALL ZONES FOR WED.

THEN ITS MUCH COLDER WED AND THU TEMPWISE. IN A NML WINTER...IT
WOULD BE WELL SORT OF NML. WE SHLD SEE OUR FIRST BACK TO BACK BLO
NML DAYS SINCE 1/1 & 1/2 ON WED AND THU (PBLY FRI ALSO) AND MIGHT
COST US A TOP TEN WARMEST RANKING FOR FEB. ECMWF WANTS TO BACK THE
WEEKEND PCPN EVENT INTO SUN. ATTM THE UKMET AND CAN SEF ARE STILL
POINTING TWD SAT AND WE WILL LEAVE DAY 7 AS IS.  NOT MUCH RUN-TO-RUN
CONTINUITY WITH THE OPMRF WINDSHIELD WIPING SFC LOW FROM W TO E OF
THE APLCHNS. ONLY CHG ATTM WAS TO USE THE PTYP ON THE NEW MEX GUID
TO MNTN SOME SNOW IN OUR NW ZONES EVEN IF WARMER SOLN WINDS OUT
SUSPECT SOME WINTRY MIX MIGHT OCR AT THE START.

MARINE: NO PROBLEMS.

.PHI...
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

TFG