Flood in Colorado, November 9, 2002

WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
203 PM MST SAT NOV 9 2002

GOOD FETCH OF MOISTURE OFF THE PACIFIC CONTINUES IN FAST ZONAL FLOW.
130KT JET OVERHEAD IN COMBINATION WITH OROGRAPHICS CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN...SNOW...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IS BRINGING A
SOME COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA AND INCREASING LAPS RATES.

PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH THE FLOW
GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST. LITTLE CHANGE FROM EARLIER
THINKING...WITH H7 TEMPS COOLING TO MINUS 6-8 DEGREES CELSIUS ACROSS
THE AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
GRAND VALLEY BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY BUT EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION
WITH MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING...REBOUNDING INTO THE 40S DURING THE
DAY.

ONGOING WINTER STORM HIGHLIGHTS LOOK ON TRACK WITH TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ONE TO THREE FOOT RANGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY
LATE SUNDAY. AS THE JET BECOMES ORIENTED NW TO SE SUNDAY...MODELS
AGREE THAT THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NORTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT SHOULD
KEEP A HEALTHY DOSE OF SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
THOUGH. COLORADO ZONE 5 SHOULD PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW AS
COOLER AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SNOW MODEL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE FOR ZONE 5 TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP AMOUNTS IN ADVISORY
RANGE.

WILL TAPER THE POPS DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BUT MOIST LOW
LEVELS AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TAL

EXTENDED (WED-SAT)...PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO AFFECT
FORECAST AREA LATE WED INTO THU. ECMWF IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND FASTER
THAN MRF...WILL BLEND BOTH AND FORECAST WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...MAY EXTEND COVERAGE OF SLIGHT THREAT OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES FOR THURSDAY PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS
BEHIND SHORTWAVE FOR FRIDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER PACIFIC SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST SATURDAY. DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED FRI-SAT.   NADLER.83

.GJT...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MOUNTAINS OF EXTREME EASTERN
          UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
    ...SNOW ADVISORY FOR COLORADO ZONE 5 TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-101400-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
603 AM MST SAT NOV 9 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND FOR
EASTERN UTAH.

.DAY ONE...

A VIGOROUS PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO TODAY.
STRONG WEST WINDS OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW...AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. FOR DETAILS...PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN GRAND JUNCTION.

.SPOTTER REPORTS ARE REQUESTED AS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATES
AND/OR IF STRONG WINDS ARE EXPERIENCED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS
THE PACIFIC STORM PROGRESSES EASTWARD. ABOVE 7500 FEET...1 TO 2 FEET
OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN GRAND JUNCTION.  DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW LATE
MONDAY...WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

HEFFERNAN