Winter Storm in Colorado, March 24, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
225 AM MST SUN MAR 24 2002

CONCERN IS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A COLD FRONT POISED OVER NEBRASKA WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY SOUTH
THRU THE CWA THIS MORNING. ALTHO SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...
BEHIND THE FRONT WINDY NE WINDS WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS INTO ALL
THE REGION BY MIDDAY. THE ETA/AVN KEEP THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND
PCPN OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. IT APPEARS THE SOUTHERN FA WILL BE SPARED
WITH ANY POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOW. GOOD LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW SHUD
PUT ALL THE FA IN CLOUDY SKIES THRU TONITE. THE POSSIBILITY OF PCPN
SHUD LINGER INTO TONITE WITH THE GREATER CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO BE OVER THE NE FA. THE ETA/AVN AND PWAT METHOD INDICATE ONE
TO FOUR INCHES OF SN NORTH OF A LINE FROM BURLINGTON TO HILL CITY.
THE DRIER MODEL...THE NGM KEEPS TOTALS AROUND AND INCH AND MAY LEAN
TOWARD THIS SOLN.

THE STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW DECREASES SOME MONDAY ALTHO A 5H/VORT MAX
MOVES FROM THE DESERT SW THRU THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...SLIGHTLY
FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE SOUTHERN FA MAY SEE SOME
-SN AS THE ENTIRE FA REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN MUCH BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TMPS.

WARMER TMPS ARE LIKELY FOR TUESDAY BUT YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF
S/W ALONG WITH ITS MOISTURE MOVES INTO MUCH OF THE FA BEFORE
CONDITIONS FINALLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY. 850/TMPS RISE INTO THE DOUBLE
DIGITS AND AFTN HIGHS SHUD CLIMB ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS OF THE FA INTO
THE 50S AND 60S WEDNESDAY.

ON THURSDAY A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND ACROSS THE CWA AGAIN WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT. MID LVL MOISTURE INCREASES MAINLY OVER
THE N FA AND PCPN CHANCES MAY INCREASE HERE. FRIDAY A 5H/LOW MOVES
FROM THE WESTERN US AND PASSES SOUTH OF THE FA. THE LOW SHUD BE TOO
FAR SOUTH TO AFFECT THE FA BUT A MIXTURE OF SUN AND CLOUDS ALONG
WITH COOLR TMPS ARE LIKELY. BY SATURDAY A 5H/RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
TRI STATE AREA AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHUD OCCUR THIS WEEKEND.

.GLD...NONE.

VP