Tornado in Colorado, July 1, 2002

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
230 PM MDT MON JUL 01 2002

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION:  TONIGHT...LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT WITH STRONG
MID-LVL SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA.  MIGHT SEE ONE OR TWO BRIEF GUSTY
VIRGA SHWRS OVER THE NEAR THE FRONT RANGE ERLY...THEN LOOK FOR
CLEARING ALL AREAS.  ONLY OTHER THING...GRIDS SHOW SFC DEWPTS RISING
OVERNIGHT ON THE ERN PLAINS WITH DEWPTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S BY DAWN IN FAR ERN ZONES.

TUESDAY...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY HOT AND DRY DAY...WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 90S ON THE PLAINS.  THUS SHOULD SEE STRING OF 90 DEG
DAYS CONTINUING AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY AT DENVER. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS
STRONGLY CAPPED DURING THE DAY ESPLY E OMTNS FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A
WK COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. STRONG HEATING AND THE
INFLUX OF MID-LVL MOISTURE LATE IN THE DAY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS OVR THE FRONT RANGE...MONUMENT RIDGE AND
ACROSS PARK CTY. DRY LIGHTNING PROBABLY MORE OF A CONCERN TUESDAY
AFTN WITH SUB-CLOUD ENVIRONMENT STILL QUITE DRY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH INDEPENENCE DAY...MID AND UPPER-LVL MOISTURE
PROGD TO INCREASE QUICKLY ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATE TUES AFTN AND
EVN. CIRCULATION AROUND A DEEP CUTOFF LOW SPINNING OFF SRN CA AND A
GREAT PLAINS UPR RIDGE WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE UP INTO
ERN CO OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THIS MOIST AND UNSTABLE SLY
FLOW...E-SELY UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW-LEVELS WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF
THE FNT RNG. AVN LOOKS MUCH WETTER THAN ETA...BUT STILL BELIEVE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL BE AROUND TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MTN...FOOTHILL AND URBAN
CORRIDOR ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
HVY RAIN PRODUCERS DURING THE EVENING...SO LATER SHIFTS MAY BE
DEALING WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ESPLY IN WILDFIRE BURN AREAS.
FARTHER OUT ON THE PLAINS CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PCPN NOT LOOKING AS
GOOD...SO WILL GO WITH ISOLD COVERAGE TUESDAY EVE.  ON WEDNESDAY...
ATMOSPHERE LOOKS EVEN WETTER WITH FAIRLY DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME OVER THE FRONT RANGE.  THOUGH UPSLOPE FLOW NOT AN ISSUE...WILL
ASSUME EVEN MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND FOR HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN AND ALONG THE MTNS AND
ISOLATED STORMS FARTHER OUT ON THE PLAINS.  AND WITH PRECIPITABLE
H20 AMTS HOOVERING AROUND AN INCH AND WITH LIGHT STEERING WINDS
WOULDNT RULE OUT A FEW HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS.  AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN LOWER DAYTIME TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...
ALTHOUGH MESOETA SFC TEMP GRIDS GIVING A MAX TEMP OF 94 AT DENVER.
BELIEVE THIS TO BE TOO WARM.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION: FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO DRYING TREND BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.  AFTER WHAT APPEARS TO BE DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM DAY
FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A WEAK MID-LVL WAVE WITH MOISTURE
MOVING UP WEST SIDE OF GREAT PLAINS UPR RIDGE AND OVER NERN CO ON
SATURDAY.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS IN THE MTN ZONES
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ON THE PLAINS SATURDAY. THEN GREAT BASIN RIDGE
EXPANDS WESTWARD OVR COLORADO AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...ESSENTIALLY
CUTTING OFF THE AREA FROM INFLOW OF PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO WILL GO DRY WITH SLOW WARMING TREND SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...EXCEPT IN MTN AND FRONT RANGE ZONES WHERE POCKETS OF
MID-LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE COULD HELP PRODUCE A
FEW LATE DAY STORMS. BAKER

.DEN...NONE