Hail and High Wind in Colorado, August 26, 2002

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
250 PM MDT SUN AUG 25 2002

CURRENT LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS.  HOWEVER...CIN STILL NEAR 100.  FROM ACARS
SOUNDINGS...LOOKS LIKE A TEMP AROUND 86 OR 87 SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
POP THE CAP OUT THERE.  WITH ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF HEATING THIS
SHOULD BE MET.  HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
MID LEVELS HAVE WARMED A TAD...WILL WORD AS CHANCE POPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER.  ENOUGH SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS AGAIN IF THE CAP
BREAKS.  SHOULD AGAIN SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS OVERNIGHT WITH
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.

ON MONDAY...MESOETA IS STILL TOO DRY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HEATING TO SPARK
ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON STORMS WHICH SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ON THE PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES.  TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY.

ON TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF COOLING WITH INCREASING
UPSLOPE FLOW AND PROBABLY MORE MORNING STRATUS AROUND.  QUESTION
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WHETHER WE GET ENOUGH HEATING TO BREAK THROUGH
THE CAP.  WILL WORD AS SLIGHT CHANCE MOST AREAS EXCEPT 30% CHANCE
WORDING OVER THE MONUMENT RIDGE AREA WHERE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY HELP OUT.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL KEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO.  MRF EVEN INDICATES A TROPICAL
CONNECTION REACHING THE STATE BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.  WITH AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY...CLIMATOLOGY OF SLIGHT CHANCE IS REASONABLE.  MAYBE
SOME DRYING FOR NEXT WEEKEND IF WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS MRF SHOWS.
SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

BARJENBRUCH

.DEN...NONE.