Wildfire in California, June 30, 2002

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
230 PM PDT SUN JUN 30 2002

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE WARM DAYS
INLAND INTO MID WEEK. MOISTURE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL RESULT IN NIGHT AND
MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...LINGERING NEAR THE BEACHES INTO THE
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE FAIR. COOLER WITH A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS/LOCAL FOG WERE INTO MOST COASTAL AREAS AND
LOCALLY INTO W PART OF INLAND VALLEYS THIS AM. STRATUS REMAINS QUITE
EXTENSIVE OFFSHORE AND LINGERED NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE CLEAR. 12Z NKX SOUNDING HAD INVERSION BASED NEAR
1500 FT WITH ELY WINDS ALOFT. ONSHORE GRADIENTS WITH ABOUT 5 MB SAN-IPL.

UPPER HI OVER THE SW MERGED WITH E PAC HI THEN PROGED TO BREAK APART
LATE MON BUT HI REMAINS OVER THE SW INTO WED. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER
LOW MEANDERS AROUND SW OF SAN AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFTS NW. SE-S FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD START TO BRING IN SOME MID AND HI LEVEL MOISTURE LATE MON AND
CONTINUE INTERMITTENTLY INTO THU. HEATING IN MOUNTAINS/DESERTS COULD
CAUSE ENOUGH CONVECTION FOR AT LEAST HI BASED CU AND SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUE/WED. IF A THUNDERSTORM FORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THEN
IT COULD POSSIBLY DRIFT INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED. HOWEVER...THREAT TOO SMALL AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST.
NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE CONFINED TO COASTAL SECTIONS UNDER
STRONG/SHALLOW INVERSION AND MAY LOCALLY LINGER NEAR THE BEACHES INTO
THE AFTERNOONS. CONTINUED WARM TO HOT DAYS FAR INLAND/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS
BUT ONLY THE MOUNTAINS WILL GET NEAR RECORD LEVELS. A VERY SLOW COOLING
TREND THROUGH MID WEEK AS UPPER HI WEAKENS AND SHIFT E. SEA BREEZE TO
DESERT THERMAL LOW WILL DOMINATE EACH AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL HELP
MODERATE MAX TEMPS W OF MOUNTAINS...BUT SHOULD ACTUALLY WARM A LITTLE
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO WEAKER EDDY.

LOTS OF SMALL UNCERTAINTIES IN LONGER RANGE PROGS...HOWEVER THEY
GENERALLY INDICATE DECREASING MOISTURE IN FLOW ALOFT THU. UPPER LOW OFF
THE COAST SHOULD GET ABSORBED INTO WEAK TROUGH MOVING PAST TO THE N
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME INDICATIONS THAT UPPER LOW
COULD MOVE IN FARTHER S AND THIS WOULD CONTINUE A WEAK ELY FLOW ALOFT.
WILL GO WITH DRIER SW FLOW ALOFT AND COOLING TREND WITH DEEPENING MARINE
LAYER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

.SAN...NONE.

ATKIN