Lightning Strike in Ohio, June 30, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
230 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2002

MID/UPR LVL RDG AXIS CNTRD OVR WRN GRTLKS AND MS RVR VLY THRU
MON WITH WESTERLIES FLATTENING OUT THIS RDG BY MID WEEK. MODEL
TRENDS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH FRONT DROPPING S THRU FA DURG
WED/WED NIGHT TIME FRAME.

IN SHORT TERM...WK S/WV AXIS DROPPING ESE ARND UPR RDG THRU LWR
MI AND OH. VIS SATL IMGRY SHWS SCTD/BKN CU DVLPMNT OVR WRN OH/ERN
IN WITH A FEW SHOWERS EVIDENT ON RADAR OVR THIS REGION. THESE
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN AREA OF FAVORABLE LO LVL MSTR CONVERGENCE.
XPCT TO SEE CONTD DVLPMNT OF SHWRS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVR THE
MIAMI VLY AND PERHAPS CENTRAL OH THRU AFTN. XPCT THIS ACTIVITY TO
FALL APART WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WL CONT TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
BUT WL LKLY MENTION SLGT CHC OF EVE SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THESE GROUPS. SKIES WL BECOME MSTLY CLEAR WITH LOSS OF HEATING
WITH PATCHY FOG DVLPG LATE.

MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK S/WV DROPPING SE ARND PERIPHERY OF
MID/UPR RDG AXIS ON MON. AFTN HEATING...ALONG WITH WK UPR SUPP AND
WEAK LO LVL CONVERGENCE SHUD AGAIN LEAD TO THE DVLPMNT OF TSTMS.
BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS OVR ERN AND SRN GROUPS.
WL MENT CHC OF AFTN THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL GROUPS. GUID TEMPS APPEAR
CLOSE BUT FWC VALUES MAY BE A DEG OR SO WRM DUE TO CLDS AND POTENTIAL
PRECIP.

WITH LOSS OF HEATING XPCT ANY PRECIP TO END ERLY MON EVE AND SKIES
TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

UPR RDG AXIS THRU OH ON TUE SHUD PROTECT THE AREA FROM ANY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THE BEST POTENTIAL ON TUE AFTN APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF
THE OH RVR WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA CAPPED. AT THIS TIME WL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH CHC/S LO. XPCT TEMPS TO BE A DEG OR TWO
WRMR ON TUE WITH SLGT THICKNESS/HGHT RISES.

WL INDICATE CHC POPS OF TSTMS ON WED/WED NGT WITH ANTICIPATED FROPA.

.ILN...NONE.

AR