Wildfire in California, June 3, 2002

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
230 PM PDT MON JUN 3 2002

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND THROUGH MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY INLAND. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
DECREASE WITH NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LINGERING
NEAR THE BEACHES INTO THE AFTERNOONS. OTHERWISE...FAIR. COOLER TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH WEAKENS.

.DISCUSSION...EDDY TODAY AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG WERE INTO COASTAL MOUNTAIN
SLOPES THIS AM...AND SLOW TO CLEAR FROM ORANGE COUNTY AND PARTS OF
INLAND EMPIRE. OTHERWISE...CLEAR. 12Z NKX SOUNDING HAD INVERSION BASED
NEAR 3800 FT...HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS PREVIOUS BUT CLOUD BASES ALSO
HIGHER. DRY NW WINDS ALOFT. STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS WITH ABOUT 8 MB
SAN-IPL.

BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W AS TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND THEN CUTS
BACK TO LEAVE A WEAK TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW OVER NW MEX BY WED. INCREASING
HEIGHTS/THICKNESS/850 MB TEMPS INTO THU. RIDGE GETS FLATTENED THU AS
TROUGH MOVES PAST TO THE N BUT LOCAL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
GENERALLY DECREASING SYNOPTIC SCALE ONSHORE GRADIENTS TO THE E. UPPER
FLOW BECOMES NE WED AND THU WITH WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS FROM THE GREAT
BASIN. HOWEVER...LOCAL ONSHORE FLOW TO DESERT THERMAL LOW SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BRING STRATUS INTO COASTAL AREAS AND LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
DENSE FOG COULD LINGER NEAR THE BEACHES UNDER A VERY LOW/STRONG
INVERSION. A LITTLE WARMER IN MOST AREAS TUE THEN MUCH WARMER WED/THU...
ESPECIALLY INLAND/MOUNTAIN/DESERTS WHERE MAX TEMPS COULD GET NEAR RECORD
LEVELS. SEA BREEZE AND MARINE INFLUENCE WILL MODERATE TEMP INCREASE NEAR
THE COAST.

LONGER RANGE PROGS NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. LOOKS LIKE WEAK UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE E FRI AND THEN RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SW.
WILL BROAD BRUSH EXTENDED WITH SLIGHT COOLING AND INCREASED MARINE LAYER
UNTIL PROGS SETTLE ON A SOLUTION.

.SAN...NONE.

ATKIN