Wildfire in California, July 26, 2002

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 26 2002

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY AND MORE ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THEN DECREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL INCREASE A LITTLE TONIGHT AND THEN DECREASE TO
THE COASTAL AREAS TOWARD MIDWEEK.

.DISCUSSION...MARINE LYR ABOUT 200 FT HIGHER THAN YDA AFTN AT ABOUT
1.8K AND SHUD GO UP TO ABOUT 2K TNGT. SHUD GET INTO FAR WEST PART OF
SBD/RIV VALLEYS BY ERLY SAT AM. LOW CLDS HANGING ALG THE CST
CURRENTLY. 50H DROPS SLIGHTLY THRU SAT WITH ABOUT A 30M DROP IN
THKNS BY SAT AFTN. 50H INCREASES SLGTLY ON SUN WITH LITTLE CHG IN
THKNS. HI BUILDS OVR SOCAL ON MON AND TUE. WEAK VORT MAX FCST BY AVN
TO MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE AND MAY KEEP LOW CLDS HANGIN
ON THE CST LONGER THEN. 50H REMAINS THE SAME THROUGH WED THEN
WEAKENS AS TROF DIGS INTO PACNW THU AND FRI. MCSS CURRENTLY OVR
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ MOVING WEST. MID AND UPR LVL FLOW LOOKS LIKE IT
CULD BRING THE MOISTURE INTO FAR SOCAL BUT THE FLOW DOES SOME
FLOPPING AROUND. AVN DOES SHOW SOME 70H MOISTURE MOVING IN SAT AM
BUT THEN FORCES IT OUT AFTN. X-SEC ONLY SHOWS A THIN LYR OF ABOUT
55+ RH FOR SAT OVR THE MTNS AND DSRTS. CULD BE CLOSE AS MAY GET ENUF
FOR AN ISOLD TSTORM IN SOUTHERN MTNS BUT WILL LET MID SHIFT DECIDE
HOW TO DEAL WITH IT. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS WITH BREEZES IN DSRTS.
TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE SAT THEN NOT MUCH CHG SUN AND CLIMBIN BACK UP
MON AND TUE. HURRICANE ELIDA SLOWLY DYING AND FCST TO DROP TO TS SUN
AM. STRONG SOUTH SWELL A COMBO OF SOUTHERN HEMIS AND PAST HURRICANE
DOUGLAS AND NOW ELIDA SHUD BE ADDING SOME MORE. SOUTH SHOWING SIGNS
OF WEAKENING ON CDIP MODEL BUT A BIT MORE FROM ELIDA SHUD SHOW UP
SAT AND SUN.

SAN...NONE.

WHITLOW