Wildfire in California, July 24, 2002

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
230 PM PDT WED JUL 24 2002

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER
WEATHER STARTING FRIDAY WITH MORE COASTAL LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...MODELS NOT QUITE UP TO SPEED WITH THE MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE DEPICTED BY THE LOCAL 12Z SOUNDINGS. SO FCSTING IS BEING
DONE TODAY WITH SATPIX...RADAR AND SOUNDINGS MORE THAN WITH MODELS.
A WEAK WAVE ENHANCED UPLIFT NE AREA WITH SOME TSTORMS IN NRN MTNS
AND DESERT...BUT A LITTLE SUBSIDENCE OVER SRN AREA TODAY. THESE
WILL NOT MOVE FAST...SO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. AS
SOMETHING DEVELOPS...A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ISSUED
WITH POSSIBLE WARNINGS TO FOLLOW. HOPEFULLY THE MODELS WILL HAVE A
HANDLE ON THE MOISTURE BY THE EVENING MODEL RUN TO RAISE CONFIDENCE.
FOR NOW IT APPEARS SOME MOISTURE WILL HOVER OVER OUR AREA THROUGH
THU AND SMALL POPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU FOR TSTORMS IN MTNS AND
DESERTS. WEAK UPPER TROUGH GENTLY BEARING DOWN OVER CA FRI-SUN.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT LATE THU AND THE MARINE LAYER AND ASSOC CSTL
CLOUDS WILL RETURN IN A WEAK STATE FRI MORN...THEN BECOME A LOT
STRONGER SAT. AN EDDY IS A GOOD BET TOO. TEMPS WILL LOWER A LITTLE
FRI...THEN MORE SAT. A WEAK FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN TROUGHS AND RIDGES
THROUGH FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH A TINY CUTOFF LOW W OF SOCAL.
HEIGHTS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH SO SEASONAL WX AND TEMPS EXPECTED.

.SAN...NONE.

MM