Wildfire in California, July 20, 2002

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
320 AM PDT SAT JUL 20 2002

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COASTAL EDDY WILL CONTINUE THE EXTENSIVE NIGHT
AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A WARMING TREND AND A
POSSIBLE RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...WK UPR TROUGH/LOW WL REMAIN OFF THE CA CST INTO MON
WITH A WK EDDY OVR THE CSTL WATERS. ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DEPTH
OF THE MARINE LYR A LTL ABV 2000 FT...SIMILAR TO FRI MORNING. LOW
CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE ONCE AGAIN
THIS MORNING AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE MARINE INVERSION...LOW
CLOUDS MAY LINGER AT SOME BEACHES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
MAY WARM EVER SO SLIGHTLY INLAND SUN AND MON...BUT MAIN WARMING WL
OCCUR FM TUE ON AS THE SW UPR RDG BUILDS WESTWARD...WITH GREATEST
WARMING W OF THE MTNS. LATEST AVN RUN HAS THE CNTR OF THE UPR RDG IN
A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR A RETURN OF THE MONSOON BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A MINOR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE COMING
IN IN SLY FLOW MON AND TUE...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDS OVR THE MTNS. MAIN SURGE OF MSTR COMES IN WED AS FLOW TURNS
ELY AT THE MID LVLS. THIS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE FIRST DAY THAT
THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT RETURN. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONTINUED DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS OF THE EXTENDED MDLS AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES WITH
THE DETAILS OF THIS UPR RDG...THE RETURN OF THE MONSOON BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS NOT A SURE SHOT. A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE MTNS AND DESERTS FOR WED
THRU FRI...HOWEVER.

.SAN...NONE.

MARTIN