Wildfire in California, April 21, 2002

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
330 PM PDT SUN APR 21 2002

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL CAUSE AREAS OF
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...FAIR WITH WARMER DAYS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. COOLER WITH MORE CLOUDS TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE PACIFIC.

.DISCUSSION...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG NEAR COAST EARLY THIS AM...MAINLY
S. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR. 00Z NKX SOUNDING HAD A WEAK INVERSION BASED
NEAR 2000 FT WITH DRY WLY WINDS ALOFT. SLOWLY WEAKENING ONSHORE
GRADIENTS WITH ABOUT 3 MB SAN-IPL.

UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF NEAR CENTRAL CA AND DRIFTS SW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THIS HELPS PUMP UP RIDGE OVER SRN CA FOR GENERALLY INCREASING
HEIGHTS/THICKNESS/850 MB TEMPS INTO WED. SO EXPECT A WARMING TREND IN
MOST AREAS THROUGH MID WEEK. SYNOPTIC SCALE GRADIENTS REMAIN WEAK BUT
THERMAL LOW IN DESERTS WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN EACH DAY AND THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE WILL MODERATE MAX TEMPS NEAR COAST. MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY SHALLOW WITH AREAS OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. OTHERWISE...
FAIR.

LONGER RANGE PROGS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT INDICATING CLOSED LOW
WILL KICK INLAND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS AND
COOLING. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN...BUT STILL TOO UNCERTAIN TO
INCLUDE IN FORECAST. FLAT RIDGING EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR A RETURN TO NEAR
SEASONAL WEATHER.

.SAN...NONE.

ATKIN