Hail in Arkansas, March 25, 2002

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
718 AM CST MON MAR 25 2002

UPDATED ZONES SENT TO INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER MOST LOCATIONS.
ONGOING ACTIVITY INDICATING PRESENCE OF ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AS
LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

FCSTID = 07

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ057-058-060>076-250930-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
315 AM CST MON MAR 25 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 34 HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-261200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CST MON MAR 25 2002

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

EARLY THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LARGE
HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AFTER 2 PM.

.DISCUSSION...
INCREASING UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING.
AN AREA OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MID TO LATE
MORNING AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY LATE EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.

THREAT TABLE
VALID THROUGH 1200 UTC TUESDAY

THREAT AREA 1...GENERALLY EAST OF A HUNTSVILLE TO SALLISAW TO
WILBURTON TO HUGO LINE
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...50
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...25
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...20

THREAT AREAS DEFINE THE GREATEST RISK. PROBABILITIES ARE IN PERCENT.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS DEFINED AS F1 OR GREATER WIND/TORNADO
DAMAGE AND/OR GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.

.OTHER HAZARDS...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING...TEMPERATURES MAY COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND
SLEET IN AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST OF TULSA. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA.

AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1 PM
TODAY.