Flooding in Arkansas, April 8 to 9, 2002

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
315 CDT MON APR 8 2002

UPR LOW OVER W TX WL MOVE TO THE E ACROSS OK TODAY...SHEARING OUT AS
IT MOVES E. AT THE SFC...A WK CDFNT WL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE EVENING HRS.

AS THE UPR LOW APPROACHES...THE ATMOS WL DESTABILIZE TODAY...WITH
STEEP LOW/MID LVL LAPSE RATES BY ERLY AFTN. LLVL MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY INCREASE. SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLD CVR TODAY AS
MUCH OF THE AREA IS DRY SLOTTED FROM THE SW. THIS WL ALLOW FOR SOME
INSOLATION AND INCREASE IN INSTABILITY.

MDLS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING THE WK SFC FEATURES PRESENT
TODAY. BEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE SFC CDFNT WL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO
NE OK BY EARLY EVE...AND CONTINUE S THROUGH THE EVENING HRS. ETA
ALSO DOES NOT SHOW ANY ONE COHESIVE AREA OF PCPN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA...FAVORING MORE WIDESPREAD LGT PCPN. THE AVN DEVELOPS A
MORE FOCUSED AREA OF PCPN ACROSS EC OK...BUT THE AVN IS AGAIN
TONIGHT SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBS...AND WOULD TREAT
THE OMEGA AND RESULTANT QPF FIELDS WITH CAUTION.

FEEL THAT CONVECTION WL DEVELOP THIS AM/ERLY AFTN AS INSTAB
INCREASES. WITH THE LOW WBZ VALUES AND MODERATE CAPE...SVR THREAT IS
PRESENT...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM HAIL. ORGANIZED SVR NOT
EXPECTED ATTM...AS DEGREE OF INSOLATION VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...AND
LLVL WIND FIELD IS VERY WEAK ATTM.

SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OCCURRED ON SUNDAY AND STILL ONGOING ACROSS
MANY LOCATIONS IN THE ERN HALF OF THE CWFA. WIDESPREAD RAFL TOTALS
OF 3-5 INCHES AFFECTED THE AREA. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNTS OF RAFL
THAT HV OCCURRED ALREADY...AND VERY LOW FFG VALUES. WL GO AHEAD AND
EXTEND THE CURRENT FFA FOR TODAY.

MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WL QUICKLY END BY EARLY MORNING...WITH ONLY
LGT PCPN REMAINING TOWARD MORNING. WL GO AHEAD AND LEAVE TUES DRY
ATTM.

QUIET WX TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE END OF THE WORKWEEK BOTH THE MRF/AVN
AND THE ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN THE
MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE UPR LOW MOVING TOWARD THE 4
CORNERS. CURRENT FCST HAS THINGS IN GOOD SHAPE...HAVE MADE NO
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FCST ATTM.

MANNING
FCSTID = 24

TUL   67  50  68  48 /  70  30  10  10
FSM   70  53  71  48 /  80  50  10  10
MLC   71  53  69  50 /  80  50  10  10
BVO   67  46  68  47 /  60  30  10  10
FYV   66  48  67  45 /  80  50  10  10
BYV   66  48  67  45 /  80  50  10  10
MIO   67  47  67  47 /  70  40  10  10
MKO   68  52  70  48 /  70  40  10  10
F10   70  52  69  49 /  70  40  10  10
HHW   71  52  71  51 /  80  50  10  10

.TSA...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY FOR ZONES ARZ001>002...
ARZ010>011...ARZ019>020...ARZ029.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY FOR ZONES
OKZ049...OKZ053...OKZ065>076.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-091200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CST MON APR 8 2002

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN OKEMAH TO
BENTONVILLE LINE...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM CENTERED NEAR CHILDRESS TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO MISSOURI AND
ARKANSAS.

ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN HAS ENDED EARLY THIS MORNING...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AND
MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END LATER THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL STORM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE LESS
THAN AN INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 1 1/2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA SINCE EARLY SUNDAY WHICH RESULTED IN FLASH
FLOODING. THE EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY MAY ONCE AGAIN
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING SINCE THE SATURATED GROUND CANNOT HOLD MUCH
MORE WATER. PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT /OKCFFATUL/
ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE EARLIER THIS MORNING FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

IN ADDITION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING MAY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS IN THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RAINFALL TRENDS AND ANY
FLOODING TODAY. IN ADDITION...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A
CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

.DISCUSSION...
COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HAIL WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THREAT TABLE
VALID THROUGH 7 AM TUESDAY

THREAT AREA 1...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...100
SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...50
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...10

THREAT AREAS DEFINE THE GREATEST RISK. PROBABILITIES ARE IN PERCENT.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS DEFINED AS F1 OR GREATER WIND/TORNADO
DAMAGE AND/OR GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.

AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1 PM
TODAY. RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-091200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CST MON APR 8 2002

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN OKEMAH TO
BENTONVILLE LINE...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM CENTERED NEAR CHILDRESS TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO MISSOURI AND
ARKANSAS.

ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN HAS ENDED EARLY THIS MORNING...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AND
MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END LATER THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL STORM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE LESS
THAN AN INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 1 1/2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA SINCE EARLY SUNDAY WHICH RESULTED IN FLASH
FLOODING. THE EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY MAY ONCE AGAIN
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING SINCE THE SATURATED GROUND CANNOT HOLD MUCH
MORE WATER. PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT /OKCFFATUL/
ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE EARLIER THIS MORNING FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

IN ADDITION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING MAY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS IN THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RAINFALL TRENDS AND ANY
FLOODING TODAY. IN ADDITION...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A
CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

.DISCUSSION...
COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HAIL WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THREAT TABLE
VALID THROUGH 7 AM TUESDAY

THREAT AREA 1...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...100
SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...50
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...10

THREAT AREAS DEFINE THE GREATEST RISK. PROBABILITIES ARE IN PERCENT.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS DEFINED AS F1 OR GREATER WIND/TORNADO
DAMAGE AND/OR GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.

AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1 PM
TODAY. RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA