Damaging Wind in Arizona, July 3, 2002

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
950 AM MST WED JUL 03 2002

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF LATER THURSDAY AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE STATE. THE DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS MOISTURE RETURNS BY SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE TODAY TIME PERIOD OF THE ZONE FORECAST ARE GOOD. ENOUGH LIFT
AND INSTABILITY TODAY WITH PWS AROUND 98 PERCENT OF NORMAL WILL
LEAD TO MORE MOIST AND STRONGER STORMS TODAY. 88D IS SHOWING THAT
STORMS TO THE WEST ARE SPLITTING...SO GOOD INDICATION THAT SHEAR IS
A LITTLE BETTER CLOSER TO THE LOW. THE LOW WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY THIS EVENING. THINKING...THAT THERE WILL BE
A ISOLATED THREAT OF SVR TSTMS MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM PAGE TO
WINSLOW TO PAYSON THIS AFTERNOON...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FACTOR. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE LOW SHIFTS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AZ THURSDAY AND INTO
EASTERN SECTIONS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS INDICATING THAT
THE LOW WILL BE FILLING AND WEAKENING IN TIME AS WELL. TSTMS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY ALONG THE UTAH BORDER EASTWARD
ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER INTO THE WHITES AND POTIONS OF THE
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM...POSSIBLY TOO DRY IN YAVAPAI COUNTY BY LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY FOR CONVECTION.

.FGZ...NONE.

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES HI/LO           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TDY TON   THU     FRI        TDY TON   THU   FRI
FLAGSTAFF        084/050 082/049 081/047      050 020 030 020 000 000
WINSLOW          097/064 093/061 090/059      040 020 020 010 000 000
PRESCOTT         092/059 091/060 087/058      050 020 020 010 000 000
PAGE             095/071 094/071 095/069      040 020 020 010 000 000
WINDOW ROCK      088/052 085/050 083/048      050 030 040 020 010 010
CANYON DE CHELLY 094/058 091/056 089/054      040 020 030 020 010 010
COTTONWOOD       103/067 102/068 098/066      040 020 020 010 000 000
GRAND CANYON     086/049 084/048 083/046      050 020 030 020 000 000
GREER            080/046 078/045 077/043      050 020 040 020 010 010
HEBER            089/051 087/050 086/048      050 020 030 020 010 010
JACOB LAKE       082/050 080/049 079/047      050 020 030 020 000 000
NAVAJO N.M.      088/056 085/054 083/052      040 020 030 020 010 010
PAYSON           097/060 096/061 092/059      050 020 020 010 000 000
SEDONA           101/065 100/066 096/064      040 020 020 010 000 000
SELIGMAN         095/052 094/053 090/051      040 010 010 010 000 000
SHOW LOW         090/058 088/057 087/055      050 020 030 020 000 000
ST. JOHNS        091/059 087/056 084/054      040 030 030 010 000 000
WUPATKI N.M.     099/067 095/064 092/062      040 020 020 010 000 000

AZZ004>018-037>040-031930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST WED JUL 03 2002

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY...

MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO STEADILY INCREASE ACROSS ARIZONA IN
RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ARIZONA LATE TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ISOLATED
AND MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM PAGE TO WINSLOW TO PAYSON THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING TODAY OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA IS NONE
TO LOW.