Wildfire in Arizona, August 15 to 31, 2002

Name: Wildfire in Arizona, August 15 to 31, 2002
Start: 2002-08-15T14:00
End: 2002-08-31T23:59
Location: Arizona

August 15 to 31, 2002 · NWS FGZ · 2 events in 2 counties and zones

The Pack Rat Fire was lightning caused on August 15 about 15 miles north of Payson on the south side of the Mogollon Rim. The fire also spread north and over the rim about 8 miles east of Pine.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

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The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.

The Pack Rat Fire was lightning caused on August 15 about 15 miles north of Payson on the south side of the Mogollon Rim. The fire also spread north and over the rim about 8 miles east of Pine. Numerous other small lightning fires (<100 acres) started on August 15. The fire was contained on September 2 with total acreage burned at 3470 acres. Over 200 people, 4 engines, 3 helicopters, 6 water tenders, and 3 dozers were involved in firefighting efforts.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 15, 9:05 AM MST, 4 hours 55 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 15, 9:05 AM MST, 4 hours 55 minutes before

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
905 AM MST THU AUG 15 2002

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY...TURNING GRADUALLY COOLER AS THE NEW WEEK BEGINS. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS.

.DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING...COUPLED WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE FROM SOUTH OF A LINE
BETWEEN THE COCONINO PLATEAU TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...WILL ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...COURTESY OF 40 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE
OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...WILL HELP THINGS ALONG SOUTHWEST OF THE
RIM. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH A BIT TOMORROW AS MOISTURE BECOMES
MORE DIFFUSE...HEATING ISNT QUITE SO STRONG...AND DYNAMICS ARE LESS
FAVORABLE. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...RIDGING OVER THE STATE WILL HAVE
REORIENTED ITSELF WEST TO EAST. WHILE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA...RIDGING WILL KEEP A LID ON THINGS.
FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW. HOWARD

.FGZ...NONE.

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES HI/LO           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TDY TON   FRI     SAT        TDY TON   FRI   SAT
FLAGSTAFF        088/052 086/051 087/051      010 020 010 010 000 000
WINSLOW          099/064 097/063 099/062      010 020 020 020 000 000
PRESCOTT         094/065 092/065 094/064      010 020 010 010 000 000
PAGE             100/070 099/070 100/071      000 000 000 000 000 000
WINDOW ROCK      089/042 087/044 089/045      010 010 020 020 000 000
CANYON DE CHELLY 096/053 094/055 096/056      000 000 000 000 000 000
COTTONWOOD       105/073 103/073 105/072      010 020 010 010 000 000
GRAND CANYON     091/047 089/046 090/046      000 000 000 000 000 000
GREER            079/049 079/050 082/050      020 030 020 020 000 000
HEBER            089/060 087/059 090/060      020 030 020 020 000 000
JACOB LAKE       086/052 084/051 085/051      000 000 000 000 000 000
NAVAJO N.M.      090/061 088/063 090/062      000 000 000 000 000 000
PAYSON           096/062 095/062 097/061      010 020 010 020 000 000
SEDONA           102/071 100/071 102/070      010 020 010 010 000 000
SELIGMAN         098/058 095/058 098/057      010 010 010 010 000 000
SHOW LOW         092/060 091/059 093/059      020 020 020 020 000 000
ST. JOHNS        095/063 093/062 095/061      020 030 020 020 000 000
WUPATKI N.M.     100/072 098/071 100/070      010 010 000 000 000 000

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 15, 9:35 AM MST, 4 hours 25 minutes before

AZZ004>018-037>040-151930-
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
935 AM MST THU AUG 15 2002

...PRIMARY HAZARD TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED...HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG...SOUTH...AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL...HIGH SPEED WIND AXIS ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALONG...SOUTH...AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM
TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THERE. MOST STORMS WILL BE HIGH
BASED...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 MPH.

BURNED AREA RAIN OUTLOOK...
SMALL AMOUNTS OF RAIN CAN CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN BURNED OUT AREAS.
BOTH THE INDIAN AND CHEDISKI-RODE BURN SITES WILL EXPERIENCE SOME
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CHANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING ARE LOW.

HOWARD

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

2 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.

Wildfire, Coconino

When: August 15, 2:00 PM MST to August 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Coconino County, Happy Jack
Reported by: PARK/FOREST SERVICE
Coordinates: 35.839, -111.770 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Wildfire, Gila

When: August 15, 2:00 PM MST to August 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Gila County, Payson
Reported by: PARK/FOREST SERVICE
Coordinates: 33.800, -110.812 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

What these are

Wildfire: A fire burning in wildland vegetation, with its acreage and damage where known.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Arizona in 2002 Every state in 2002 This day in weather history Warnings in Arizona, August 2002

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5317786, 5317787.