Blizzard in Alaska, November 29, 2002

NORTH ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
230 PM AST FRI NOV 29 2002

ETA AND AVIATION MODELS BOTH BRING WEAKENING GULF OF ALASKA STORM UP
NEAR KODIAK, AND TRANSFER MOST OF ITS ENERGY INTO A LOW JUST NORTH
OF KOTZEBUE AND INTO A COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT/
EARLY SATURDAY. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS STRENGTHENING FRONT WILL
STILL BE WARM ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.  THE INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL
CAUSE A BLIZZARD ON THE CENTRAL BEAUFORT SEA COAST THIS PM. THE SNOW
WITH THE FRONT OVER THE INTERIOR TONIGHT/SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF IN DURATION DUE TO THE BRISK EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT.

AS THE KOTZEBUE LOW MOVES NORTH, IT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE ARCTIC COAST
NEAR BARROW SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING WINDS THERE FROM EAST AROUND
TO SOUTHWEST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE INTERIOR FROM THE WEST SATURDAY/
SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER THE LOW AND FRONT MOVE OUT OF THE ALASKAN PICTURE.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS A MID LATITUDE LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SATURDAY NIGHT, AND MOVE SLOWLY INTO BRISTOL BAY
MONDAY. SOUTH FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL
RE WARMING OF TEMPERATURES ALOFT OVER THE ALASKA MAINLAND STARTING
SUNDAY PM AND MONDAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS SHOW THE RIDGE ALOFT OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA AND THE LONG WAVE TROF ALOFT OVER THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
HOLDING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE CONTINUING SOUTH FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE ALASKA MAINLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL SOME, OVERALL READINGS THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
JUST ABOVE EVERYWHERE IN THE REALM.

THIS SPELL OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN ALASKA BEGAN LATE
IN SEPTEMBER AND HAS CONTINUED WITH LITTLE OR NO INTERRUPTION. ONCE
NEXT WEEK IS ENDING, THIS WARM SPELL WILL BE ABOUT 2 1/2 MONTHS IN
DURATION, WHICH IS PROBABLY AS LONG AS ONE OF THESE CAN BE. IN NORTHERN
ALASKA, WINTERTIME COLD SPELLS ARE LIMITED TO 3 1/2 WEEKS OR LESS, BUT
WARM PERIODS CAN GO LONGER, AS WE HAVE SEEN. THE UPSHOT FROM THIS IS
THAT COOLER WEATHER AND LIKELY SOME SNOW SHOULD SHOW UP HERE IN
MID DECEMBER.

GETTING BACK TO THE NEAR TERM FUTURE...
FOR THE ARCTIC: BRISK EAST WINDS/BLOWING SNOW WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS, SOUTHWEST WIND AND COOLER TEMPERATURES COMING
SATURDAY.

FOR THE WEST: WIDESPREAD SNOW WITH THE COOLING ALOFT TONIGHT...UP TO
2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. DECREASING CLOUDS, COOLER SATURDAY.

FOR THE INTERIOR: SNOW IN THE WEST TONIGHT ENDING SATURDAY. IN THE EAST,
CLOUDY, BREEZY AND VERY MILD TONIGHT WITH LOCAL FREEZING RAIN...THEN
LIGHT SNOW MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH SATURDAY. DECREASING CLOUDS, COOLER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOME CLOUDS, SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURNING SUNDAY PM AND MONDAY.

.AFG...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AREAS 9B, 10B. SMALL CRAFT AREAS 9, 10B.
BRISK WIND THIS EVENING AREA 11.
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING ZONE 203 THIS EVENING. WIND ADVISORY
VICINITY OF CAPE ROMANZOF THIS EVENING.

TF NOV 02