High Wind in Alaska, November 13, 2002

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
245 AM AST WED NOV 13 2002

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...THE FILLING LOW SOUTH OF SITKA SOUND AS SHOWN BY
THE 10Z SATELLITE PIC...WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND DRIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND BECOME A TROF SOUTH OF PAYA BY 18Z WED. THERE IS A
FAST MOVING DEEPENING LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC AT 10Z THE MODELS
DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS GOOD UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS A SHORT WAVE IS MOVING
NORTHEAST WITH THE SURFACE TROF. THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING IT TO
MOVE NORTHEAST AND BE JUST WEST OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND BY 00Z
THUR. IT COULD MOVE MORE NORTH THAN EXPECTED AS IT DEEPENS OVER
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THE ADVISORY WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN ZONES
HAVE BEEN CANCELLED AS THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED. THEY WILL BE
GUSTY IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES BUT WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST THE WINDS
WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY DAY BREAK OVER MOST OF THE
PANHANDLE.

AS FOR RAIN...RAIN WILL REMAIN FALLING OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
THE DAY. IT WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF AS THE
700MB OMEGA VALUES REMAIN HIGH THROUGH 00Z. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS THE DAY GOES ON AS THE DEVELOPING LOW MOVES CLOSER
TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

.LONG RANGE...TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...AND
COOLER UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN. WILL GO WITH SHOWER TERMS
FOR TONIGHT...WITH LIKELY OR BETTER POPS ALL AREAS. IT NOW LOOKS
LIKE THIS SHOWERY PATTERN WILL LAST ALL DAY THU AS SYSTEM THAT
LOOKED LIKE IT WOULD MOVE INTO THIS AREA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

MORE IMPORTANT SYSTEM SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE ERN PACIFIC THU AND
MOVE NE TOWARD THE AREA FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI. MAIN UPPER LOW
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AT THAT TIME ALSO...LENDING
SUPPORT FOR ANY LOW MOVING N INTO THE EASTERN GULF. AVN SHOWS A
WAVE MOVING INTO THE SOUTH AREA FRI MORNING...BUT LOOKS TOO WEAK
GIVEN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. WILL BRING IN A STEADIER RAIN FOR THU
NIGHT SOUTH AND CENTRAL...AND KEEP SHOWER TERMS NORTH. ON
FRI...WILL GO WITH RAIN BECOMING SHOWERS AS UPPER LOW MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA AND COLD POOL MOVES ONSHORE.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT...WITH TROF
TRAILING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA INTO SAT MORNING. EVENTUALLY...THE
TROF AXIS SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA LATER SAT.

AT THIS POINT...FLOW ALOFT FORECAST TO BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE
ENTIRE PAC. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT WITH A FAIRLY
STRONG LOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC FOR SUN/MON. MAIN OUTLIER WAS THE
00Z AVN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF/UKMET. AVN KEPT LOW WELL SOUTH OF
AREA...WHILE EURO MODELS TURNED IT N INTO THE GULF. 06Z AVN
ALREADY MADE ADJUSTMENT N WITH THIS LOW...SO LEANING HEAVILY
TOWARD THE NORTHWARD SOLUTION ATTM. WILL STICK WITH A WET
FORECAST FOR THE SUN/MON PERIOD. WILL ALSO KEEP WET FORECAST FOR
TUE AS THIS FAST FLOW PATTERN SHOULD BRING SYSTEMS FAIRLY QUICKLY
INTO THE AREA.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...SCA...1A 2A 1B

ABJ/RHM/RWT