Flood in Alaska, July 30 to 31, 2002

NORTH ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
400 AM ADT TUE JUL 30 2002

THE WEATHER OVER NORTHERN ALASKA IS NOW GOING INTO A VERY QUIET PERIOD
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS NE-WARD
OVER THE BERING SEA AND INTO THE STATE. SKIES HAVE BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
TO CLEAR OVER MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG
ALONG THE WESTERN AND ARCTIC COASTS DUE TO LOCAL ONSHORE FLOW. THE RAIN
HAS ENDED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. HOWEVER, A RIVER FLOOD
WATCH  IS STILL OUT FOR THE CHISANA AND NABESNA RIVERS NEAR NORTHWAY AND
FOR THE TANANA RIVER FROM TANACROSS UPSTREAM DUE TO CONTINUED RUNOFF
FROM RECENT RAINS. THE SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR STREAMS FROM THE
ALASKA HIGHWAY SOUTH AND FROM THE TOK CUTOFF EAST WILL BE CANCELLED AT
5AM THIS MORNING.

FOR THE SHORT RANGE, THE ETA AND AVN ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TUE AND WED OVER THE BERING
STRAITS WITH 590DM 500MB HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. THIS MEANS THAT
NORTHERN ALASKA WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY OVER ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR
SOME COASTAL LOW CLOUDS/FOG. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL
OVER THE INTERIOR AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEST COAST AND
ARCTIC ZONES AS THE VERY WARMEST AIR REMAINS OVER THE BERING SEA AND
FAR EAST RUSSIA.

THE MRF AND ECMWF ARE NOW IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THU THROUGH MON. THEY
BOTH KEEP THE HIGH CENTER IN PLACE OVER THE BERING AND DROP A UPPER LOW
CENTER SOUTHWARD FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC ACROSS THE YUKON TERRITORY THEN
OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THIS MEANS MORE NICE WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE
ARCTIC AND WEST COAST ZONES, EXCEPT FOR COASTAL FOG/LOW CLOUDS. IF THE
MODELS ARE CORRECT, THE INTERIOR WOULD EXPERIENCE SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS
AS COLDER AIR MOVES W-WARD FROM CANADA BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WITH
SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES THU AND EARLY FRI.

.AFG...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
MARINE...SCA 14 TODAY.
PUBLIC...FLOOD WATCH TODAY ZONES 224 AND 226.

MP JUL 02