Hurricane in Alabama, October 2 to 3, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
320 AM CDT WED OCT 02 2002

HURRICANE LILI IS INTENSIFYING AND MOVING TOWARD SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE BEING POSTED CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE ALABAMA COAST. WHILE MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY
IMPACTED BY THIS STRONG HURRICANE...THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE
NEXT 1-2 DAYS WILL BE NAILING DOWN THE EXTENT OF STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. DUE TO THE DISTANCE OF THE EXPECTED STORM TRACK TO
THE LOCAL AREA...THE MAIN LOCAL IMPACT OF THE STORM WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE FORM OF BATTERING SURF AND ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING IN
AREAS STILL RECOVERING FROM THE PAST TWO TROPICAL STORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL LIKELY
SERVE TO BLOCK ANY EARLY RECURVATURE LILI...BUT WILL ALSO ALLOW THE
AREA OF STRONG WINDS AROUND LILIS CENTER TO SPREAD SOME DISTANCE TO
THE EAST. WHILE THE ETA MODEL SEEMS TO INITALIZE A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE AVIATION...TEND TO BELIEVE THE AVIATIONS STRONGER WINDS TO
THE EAST...WHICH MAKES UP FOR THE FACT THAT THE BOTH MODELS
UNDERESTIMATE HOW LOW THE PRESSURE IS IN LILI. THUS WILL KEEP
CURRENT WORDING CALLING FOR WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE WATER BY
TONIGHT...AND OVER COASTAL AREAS AND INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
TOMORROW. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF HIGH WIND
ADVISORY/WARNING FOR TROPICAL STORM WINDS LATER FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.

REGIONAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS ARE RUNNING FROM 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES. THIS MAY INCREASE A LITTLE AS LILI MOVES THROUGH THE
GULF...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF AN INCREASE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT. 24 HOUR BASIN
WIDE RAINFALL AMOUNTS PER HPC CAN RANGE AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG
COASTAL COUNTIES AND OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...WITH LESS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. OF COURSE LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

COASTAL FLOODING...SWELL PERIODS ARE ALREADY UP TO 12 SECONDS AT
BUOY 42003 IN THE CENTRAL GULF. EXPECT THAT LARGE SWELL WILL REACH
THE COASTLINE BEFORE NOON AND CREATE HEAVY SURF CONDITIONS. THE
CRITICAL PERIOD FOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL COME TOMORROW MORNING WHEN
SWELLS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE AT A HIGH POINT ALONG WITH HIGH
TIDE. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS OUT NOW...AND WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED
TO A WARNING LATER THIS MORNING.

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY PICK UP AS LILI MOVES TOWARD
LOUISIANA. MAY SEE WINDS EXCEED GALE FORCE FOR A TIME BY LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WITH SEAS REACHING 12 FEET.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS
MOB EW 087/073 083/072 086 13257
PNS BW 087/073 084/073 085 13257
DTS BW 084/073 082/073 084 13245
GZH BW 087/069 086/070 084 13-35
2RO EW 090/072 083/068 083 13137
61A BE 090/072 087/068 083 13014

.MOB...
AL...TROPICAL STORM WARNING THRU THU ALC003-097-GMZ630-650-670
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THRU THU ALZ063-064-GMZ630-650
     HEAVY SURF ADVISORY ALONG THE BEACHES ALZ063-064
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GMZ630-650-670.
FL...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THRU THU FLZ002-004-006-GMZ655
     HEAVY SURF ADVISORY ALONG THE BEACHES FLZ002-004-006
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GMZ655-675.
MS...NONE.

CHRISTENSEN

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