Hail and Damaging Wind in Alabama, August 27, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
150 PM EDT TUE AUG 27 2002

CURRENTLY: MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. WEAKER
CONVECTION IS STILL CONTINUING TO FIRE OUT AHEAD OF IT OVER THE FL
BIG BEND COASTAL WATERS AND OVER SW GA...AND EXPECT THIS EASTWARD
TREND TO CONTINUE. TO THE WEST...SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS JUST
BECOMING EVIDENT...BUT EXPECT ONLY LIMITED CONVECTION WITH THE DRIER
AIR.

MODELS/ZFP: SHOULD SEE A DISTURBED PATTERN CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TO THE N MEANDERS OFF TO THE
SW THEN W. AT THE SFC...THE WEAK LOW OVER THE N GULF WILL ALSO BE
ADVECTED WESTWARD. THIS WILL INITIALLY COMBINE TO ADVECT DRIER AIR
IN ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS...BEFORE THE WESTWARD MOVING
BERMUDA HIGH SHIFTS THE MOISTURE AXIS BACK OVER THE REGION BY
FRIDAY. THUS...EXPECT BELOW CLIMO POPS ON WED. AND THU...WITH PWS
IN THE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE...BEFORE GREATER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY RETURN...RESULTING IN HIGHER POPS ON FRIDAY.

MARINE: WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING WEAK...WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS THEY GRADUALLY
BACK TO THE SE AS THE BERMUDA HIGH PUSHES WESTWARD.

EXTENDED: WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN OVER THE SE...SHOULD
SEE THE MOISTURE AXIS SHIFT W OF THE CWA WITH LOWER POPS...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
TLH 72 92 72 93 2312
PFN 75 89 76 90 1212
DHN 71 91 72 91 1213
ABY 71 91 71 92 2312
VLD 71 90 72 91 2312
CTY 72 89 73 90 3323

.TLH...
.AL...NONE.
.GA...NONE.
.FL...NONE.

GOULD