Hail and Damaging Winds in Virginia, July 1, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
235 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2001

KPBZ/KCCX RADARS SHOWING SOLID LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SAGGING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PA. SEVERAL WARNINGS COMING OUT FROM
OFFICES TO THE NORTH. 18Z ANALYSIS SHOWING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO.

THIS COLD FRONT PROGGED BY 12Z ETA AND AVN TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS... AND 15Z RUC SHOWING NO DIFFERENCE
IN THE TREND. ETA AND NOW THE RUC ARE HINTING THAT THE LINE OF
STORMS TO THE NORTH WILL BREAK UP AS IT APPROACHES... DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THE WIND FIELDS OVER OUR AREA ARE NOT NEARLY AS FAVORABLE
AS THEY ARE TO THE NORTH AND THAT MAIN SHORT WAVE AND HEIGHT FALLS
REMAIN OVER PA. STILL... UNSTABLE AMS IN PLACE WITH LI VALUES
CURRENTLY IN THE -5 TO -7 RANGE. CONSIDERING STRENGTH OF SURFACE
BOUNDARY... WOULD EXPECT THAT AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS... WILL MENTION HARDER IN THE NORTH THAN
THE SOUTH.

CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR SHOULD WORK INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LOOK VERY PLEASANT. MAY SEE SOME LOWS IN THE 40S
IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS OUT WEST MONDAY NIGHT.

NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP APPEARS TO BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
WEST... AND WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
WARM ADVECTION AND WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WEST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.

DCA   63  78  61  81 /  50   0   0   0
BWI   58  78  55  81 /  40   0   0   0
MRB   57  76  51  80 /  30   0   0  10
IAD   57  78  52  81 /  40   0   0   0
CHO   64  78  55  82 /  50   0   0   0
HGR   58  75  50  79 /  30   0   0  10
NHK   64  77  58  82 /  50   0   0   0
W99   57  78  50  82 /  40   0   0  10

.LWX...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SCA FOR TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD PORTION OF CHESAPEAKE BAY.

MARGRAF!

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-VAZ021-026>031-040>042-052>054-
WVZ048>055-020100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON
444 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2001

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 492 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS...

THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

IN MARYLAND... ALLEGANY...ANNE ARUNDEL...CARROLL...FREDERICK...
HARFORD...HOWARD...MONTGOMERY...NORTHERN BALTIMORE...PRINCE
GEORGES...SOUTHERN BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON

IN VIRGINIA... ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA...CLARKE...
FAIRFAX...FAUQUIER...FREDERICK...HIGHLAND...LOUDOUN...PAGE...PRINCE
WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK...RAPPAHANNOCK...ROCKINGHAM...
SHENANDOAH AND WARREN

IN WEST VIRGINIA... BERKELEY...GRANT...HAMPSHIRE...HARDY...
JEFFERSON...MINERAL...MORGAN AND PENDLETON

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN
MARYLAND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATCH AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND. VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LARGE HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

MARGRAF!