Damaging Wind in Vermont, July 4, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2001

...NATURAL FIREWORKS MAY GIVE WAY TO MAN-MADE VARIETY IN TIME...

CRNT: SITUATION STL UNFOLDING. TSRA ACRS ONTARIO ROCKETING ENE
AT 50KTS WITH AWIPS GENERATED TIMEPLOT ARRIVING IN ST LWRNC VLY
ARD 20Z BUT SOME ACTVTY PSBLY TO DVLP AHD OF THIS AND CUD REACH BY
19Z. STGST CELLS/CLUSTER WITH SVR HISTORY ACCRDG TO CNDN WRNGS
IS NR KYWA AT 1730Z. LI/CAPE INSTABILITY AXIS AHD OF THIS LINE
AND ST LWRNC VLY WITH VSB SAT PIX CU FORMING ALG THIS AXIS BACK
INTO ERN MI.

CLOSER TO HOME...A CELL HAS POPPED UP IN FRANKLIN CTY NY. VSB SAT
PIX SHWG A PSBL BNDRY FM N OF KPLB-MALONE-KOGS BACK ACRS LAKE
ONTARIO IN EXCESS OF INCRSG INSTABILITY.

GIVEN CRNT DVLPG SITU...WL HAVE BRF FCST DISC ABT FUTURE FCST AND
WL ATTEMPT TO HAVE ZONES AVBL ERLY IN ORDER TO MONITOR TSRA ACTVTY.

BIG PIX: GENERAL TROFINESS IN NE WITH NW FLOW ALOFT INTO ERLY NXT
WEEK. THIS BASICALLY ADDS UP TO WEAK S/W TRVLG WITHIN MEAN FLOW
FOR CHC -SHRA ACTVTY EVERY FEW DAYS AND TEMPS AOB SEASONABLE LVLS.

SHORT TERM: FIRST STG S/W EJECTING NE ACRS ST LWRNC VLY/QUEBEC THIS
EVENING AND DELIVERING SFC CD FT ACRS FA BTWN 00-06Z. -TSRA/-SHRA
ACTVTY AHD/ALG CD FNT AND XPCT ACTVTY TO END ARD 02-03Z IN CHMPL VLY
(ERLR W...LATER E)...THUS MAN-MADE FIREWORK ACTVTIES MAY STL BE
PSBL WHERE IT/S RAINING ERLR IN THE EVENING. AGAIN...SCT -SHRA/
-TSRA ACTVTY SO NOT EVERYONE WL SEE IT.

AFT FROPA...STG MID-LVL JET DELIVERING DRY AIR FOR CLRG SKIES TNGT.

LONGER TERM: BRISK CONDS AND CAA DICTATING WX FOR THU WITH ANTHR STG
S/W ROTATING FM H5 LOW ACRS FA LATE IN DAY/EVENING FOR CHC MTN
SPRINKLES IN NORTH AND DECENT MIXING AS LLVL LAPSE RATES INCREASE.

ULVL LW TROF AXIS MVS TOWARDS FA THU NGT AND ACRS FRI ALG WITH SOME
S/W ENERGY ROTATING ALG CNDN BDR FOR CHC -SHRA/SPRINKLES IN N ON FRI
AND A COOL DAY AS WELL.

XNTD: PTLY CLDY FRI NGT WITH DEPARTING ULVL TROF BUT ALL THIS CUD BE
SHORT-LIVED.

ACTIVE NW FLOW ALOFT WITH MINOR S/W AND RETURN FLOW WAA DVLPG AS
TEMPORARY RIDGE ACRS OH RVR VLY SLIDES OFFSHORE WL BRG ABT A CHC
-SHRA SAT AFTN-SUN MRNG. THIS S/W BUILDS IN PLACE ACRS ERN NEW
ENGLAND DRG WKND AND MAY BRG CHC -SHRA TO ERN ZONES ALL DAY SUNDAY.

THEREAFTER...MORE SFC RIDGING BTWN SYSTEMS WITH PTLY CLDY/DRY MONDAY
AND MUCH OF TUESDAY BFR ANTHR WK SYSTEM MOVES WITHIN NW FLOW FOR CHC
-SHRA.

PRELIM WORKS AVBL SHORTLY.

.BTV...NONE.

SLW

NYZ026>031-034-035-VTZ001>012-050000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #506
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2001

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK UNTIL 8 PM...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #506 INCLUDES ALL COUNTIES IN VERMONT
AS WELL AS ST. LAWRENCE...FRANKLIN...CLINTON AND ESSEX COUNTIES
IN NEW YORK.

AT 330 PM...THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
NEW YORK WITH ANOTHER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO
PROVINCE...MOVING EAST. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AND ACROSS VERMONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH AND
LARGE HAIL. DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ALL THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

HOLIDAY FESTIVITIES INCLUDING PICNICS AND MANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ARE
OCCURRING. IT IS ESSENTIAL THAT YOU MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
LOCAL RADIO STATIONS FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
ALSO...KEEP A CONTINUOUS WATCH TO THE SKY AND AT FIRST SIGNS OF
THREATENING WEATHER...SEEK SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A ENCLOSED...STURDY
BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

WHITTIER