Winter Weather in Vermont, December 14 to 15, 2001

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
402 PM EST FRI DEC 14 2001

NO MAJOR CHNGS IN 12Z GUIDANCE FROM EARLIER RUN...SO SOME CONTINUITY
FROM PREVIOUS FCST WITH THIS PACKAGE. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY RMNS UP
FOR ALL OF FA EXCEPT FOR SC VT.

LOW PRES OVR ERN OHIO ATTM PROGGED TO MOVE ACRS SRN TIER OF
NYS/XTRM NRN PA TONITE...THEN REDEVELOP ALG CST OF SRN NEW ENG
LATE TONITE. H5 SHRTWV WEST OF SFC LOW THIS PM RMNS INTACT BUT
WKNS SOME AS IT LIFTS NEWRD TONITE. AREA OF STG UVM WL MOV OVR
NRN NYS 00Z-06Z AND NRN VT 03Z-09Z...LENDING SUPPORT FOR THE .50 TO
.75 INCHES OF QPF BEING GENERASTED BY MODELS. LLVL TEMPS RMN THE
PROBLEM...AT LEAST DURING FIRST PART OF TONITE. (H8 TEMPS SUPPORT
SNOW AS EARLY AS 00Z OVR ALL NRN ZONES). WITH LLVL NORTHERLY FLOW
DVLPG...AND DWPTS JUST NORTH OF BORDER IN L-M 20S...XPC COOLING
SHORTLY AFTER PCPN BEGINS. PERIOD OF RAIN SHUD BE BRF IN ADRNDKS/ST
LWR VLY. XPC CHNGOVR TO SNOW IN MOST OF NRN VT PRIOR TO MIDNITE...
AND AFTER MIDNITE SC VT. GENERALLY...XPC 3-6 INCHES IN ADVISORY
AREA...WITH THE HIGHER AMTS LIKELY OVR HIR ELEVATIONS. LOOK FOR 1-3
INCHES SC VT DUE TO FACT THAT MUCH OF PCPN WL FALL IN LIQUID FORM.

BULK OF PCPN WL EXIT FA JUST PRIOR TO 12Z SAT. WL CONTINUE WITH
LOW POP SNOW SHWR FOR MTN ZONES SAT AM...OTHERWISE JUST CHC FEW
FLRYS EARLY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING GOOD DRYING BY PM...SO
LOOK FOR SKIES TO BCM AT LEAST PRTLY SUNNY.

HIGH PRES BLDS INTO NORTH COUNTRY SAT NITE/SUN. DIFFICULT MIN TEMP
FCST FOR SAT NITE DUE EXPECTATION OF WDSPRD SNOW CVR ON GROUND FOR
FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. LOOK FOR SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO IN
NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS...MAINLY 10 TO 15 ELSEWHERE.

NEXT EVENT STILL SLATED FOR LATE SUN NITE/MON. SOME MAJOR
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS IN REGARDS TO TRACK AND INTENSITY OF BOTH SFC
AND UVL FEATURES. WITH THIS IN MIND...WL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM
PREVIOUS FCST...WHICH GOES ALG FAIRLY CLOSELY WITH AVN SOLUTION.
WITH COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...XPC PCPN TO BEGIN AS SNOW OR FRZG RAIN
LATE SUN NITE. MXD PCPN EVENT MONDAY...BEFORE IT GOES BACK TO SNOW
LATER MON/MON NITE AS LOW DEEPENS OFFSHORE NEW ENG.

EXTENDED: UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LOW RESIDING
OVER NORTHEAST. NO MAJOR PCPN EVENTS EXPECTED...BUT CHC SNOW SHWRS
EACH DAY. TEMPS NEAR OR A BIT ABV NORMAL.

THANKS ALY/GYX/BUF FOR COORD.

.BTV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...
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RJS