Damaging Wind in Vermont, August 28, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2001

LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER (FROM EARLY MORNING PRECIP) WHICH ADVECTED OVER
THE AREA PRETTY MUCH DAMPED OUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...BEHIND THIS AREA UNDER THE UPPER COOL POOL CONSIDERABLE
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.  DESPITE FORMIDABLE SHEAR...
INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED SO SEVERE THREAT IS ON THE LOWER END OF
MARGINAL.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LAST ONLY AS LONG AS DAYTIME
INSOLATION PERSISTS...SO HAVE ONLY KEPT MENTION INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  OVERNIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL BE
ON THE DECREASE AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING MOVES TOWARD THE REGION.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS LEAVE A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING
AROUND THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE KEPT PARTLY SUNNY
WORDING ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS
ON.  MAX TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 60S ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOWER 70S
SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT.  MOSTLY CLEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
AND ADVECTS DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES.  HAVE FORECAST THURSDAYS MAX TEMPERATURES TO JUMP ABOUT 10F
FROM WEDNESDAYS FORECAST MAXES...DESPITE NGM GUIDANCE TO THE
CONTRARY.

MEDIUM RANGE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONSISTENT THROUGH SUNDAY.  POTENT
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...THEN THE
COOLEST AIR IN MONTHS VISITS US SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  MAX
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND MINS FROM THE LOWER 30S TO THE MID 40S.
MRF THEN BRIEFLY BRINGS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY.

ST. JEAN

.BTV...NONE.