Hail in Texas, September 23, 2001

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
215 PM CDT SUN SEP 23 2001

SHORT TERM...MAY HAVE TO CARRY EVENING POPS AND POSSIBLY AREAL
QUALIFIERS ACROSS SOME ZONES UNTIL THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE
FORECAST AREA. FINALIZED POPS WILL BE DETERMINED AT PRESS TIME. AT
23/19Z THE COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS.

LONGER TERM...NO REAL WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MODIFIED POLAR AIRMASS
DOMINATES THE REGION. THE ONLY CONCERN WITH THIS PACKAGE IS TRYING
TO PIN DOWN OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OBSERVATIONS IN
THE TX PANHANDLE SHOW CAA IS IN PROGRESS WITH CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR
SKIES AND CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
STEADILY ONCE THE SUN SETS AND WINDS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. LOWS MON
AND TUE ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE 40S WHICH WILL BE THE COOLEST
SINCE MAY. THIS WELCOMED COOL SPELL IS A SIGN OF THINGS TO COME WITH
THE FALL SEASON UNDERWAY AND THE AVERAGE FIRST FREEZE DATE FOR THE
AREA NOW ONLY 3-5 WEEKS AWAY.

THE 500MB RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E AND AMPLIFY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE N-NE FLOW ALOFT
TO CONTINUE. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTS
SUNNY/CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. OF SOME INTEREST IS
HURRICANE JULIETTE CENTERED 320MI S-SE OF MAZANILLO MEXICO. JULIETTE
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A 100KT HURRICANE BY MON NIGHT AS IT PARALLELS
THE MEXICAN COAST AND DRAWS CLOSER TO THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE STRONG
N-NE FLOW ALOFT WILL PRECLUDE ANY HIGH CLOUDS FROM STREAMING NE
WHICH IS NOT UNCOMMON WITH THIS FORECAST TRACK. SEE NHC PUBLIC
BULLETINS ON JULIETTE (WTPZ31 KNHC) FOR MORE INFORMATION.

EXTENDED FORECAST...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
AS THE 500MB RIDGE REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE ROCKIES. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AT MID WEEK WILL RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS BY WEEKS END AS THE
AIRMASS GRADUALLY WARMS ACROSS THE AREA. PRELIM NUMBERS FOLLOW.

FCSTID = 44
FRI   46  70  42  71 /   5   0   0   0
TUL   45  71  41  72 /   5   0   0   0
CDS   49  70  46  72 /   5   0   0   0
BNF   48  73  44  74 /  20   0   0   0
LBB   50  72  45  74 /  20   0   0   0
ASP   51  72  49  75 /  20   0   0   0

.LUB...NONE.

ST