Hail in Texas, September 21, 2001

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
213 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2001

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT AND
TEMPERATURES. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEEK LEE TROUGH WITH
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. AT UPPER-LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE
WAS PUSHING ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL TEXAS WITH SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL LIKELY DISCOURAGE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT BUT ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED
ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. THE FOCUS SHOULD BE
IN THIS AREA NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL JET TO WEST OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS
AND NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH. STORMS THAT DEVELOP OFF THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL LIKELY BE SUSTAINED INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BY A VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL NEW MEXICO. FLOW
ALOFT OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST WILL PUSH THE STORMS SLOWLY TOWARD
THE WESTERN PANHANDLES EVENTUALLY WITH SOME STORMS CROSSING THE
STATE-LINE BY EARLY EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR AS THE
WESTCENTRAL ZONES BUT EXPECT SLOW DISSIPATION AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS. THE SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY PUSH TOWARD THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT
REACHING THE PANHANDLES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH
WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS STORMS BY SATURDAY
EVENING. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT DEVELOP WITH THE STORMS WILL HELP
TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE
NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY
MORNING RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY EAST AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. LOW CLOUDS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REACHES DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

FOR THE LATER PERIODS...A RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES WILL BRING
FLOW ALOFT OUT OF THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH INSTABILITY REDUCED...
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH THE FLOW
ALOFT KEEPING THE STORMS TO THE WEST OF THE PANHANDLES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A LEE TROUGH BY MIDWEEK. THIS
SHOULD BRING WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE. AS THIS OCCURS...A WARMING TREND SHOULD RESUME. BEYOND
MIDWEEK REMAINS IN QUESTION. A LOT DEPENDS ON HOW THE UPPER-RIDGE
WILL BEHAVE. FLOW ALOFT IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION COULD BRING
STORMS OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE FORECAST AREA ONCE AGAIN. FOR
THIS REASON...WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS WEST AND CENTRAL
ON FRIDAY.

PRELIM...
AMA 60/85 58/75 51 224
DHT 57/83 52/75 46 336

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

CB