Damaging Wind in Texas, September 19, 2001

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
230 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2001

SO FAR TODAY...MOST CONCENTRATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AND JUST ONE COUNTY INLAND. IT APPEARS THAT THIS IS
WHERE THIS MORNINGS BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH HAS COMBINED WITH THE
SEABREEZE FRONT TO PRODUCE THE STORMS WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME
HEATING. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING. THINGS LOOK TO STAY ON THE QUIET SIDE (DAYTIME HEATING
PRODUCING ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS)
THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...
AND WELL NEED TO WATCH TO OUR NORTHWEST FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT
HEADS THIS WAY. ONE SUCH POSSIBLE IMPULSE IS PICKED UP BY THE MODELS
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WILL RAISE POPS EVER SO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST
ZONES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. OVERALL...ALL POPS STAY LOW (IN
A 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE). A WEAK TROF IS DEVELOPED BY THE MODELS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK...AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP DAYTIME CONVECTION
GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND SHOW SOME DRYING IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES ON WEDNESDAY
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS (CONFIDENCE IS
NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE).
HAVE GONE WITH A GENERAL COOLING TREND AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK
WITH SOME DRIER AIR ENTERING THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. IF ALL GOES
RIGHT NEXT WEEK...WELL BE SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE
80S INLAND LOCATIONS WITH A LITTLE WARMER NIGHTTIME LOWS AT THE
COAST. SUMMER OFFICIALLY COMES TO AN END THIS SATURDAY

.HGX...NONE.

42/38/WT

PRELIMS...
CLL BB 071/095 072/094 071 222
IAH BB 072/093 072/092 072 222
GLS BB 078/089 078/089 078 222