Hail in Texas, June 4, 2001

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
200 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2001

A SHRTWV TROF NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVG THRU THE INTRMTRGN
AND IS FCSTD TO BCM NEGATIVELY-TILTED AS IT SWINGS THRU THE RCKYS
THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE.  SHRTWV ENERGY FCSTD TO LIFT NEWD OUT OF AZ
AND THE SRN RCKYS BY THIS EVE...HWVR 700 MB TEMPS FCSTD TO BE IN
THE 13 TO 15+ DEG C RANGE WHEN THE SHRTWV ENERGY FCSTD TO MOV ACRS.
CONCERNED THAT LOW CLDS AND FOG MAY RE-DVLP ONCE AGAIN LTR TNGT AND
ERY TUE BHND THE FNT...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED THIS MRNG.  MAY
DECIDE TO PUT LOW CLDS AND FOG IN THE TNGT FCST.  700 MB TEMPS ARE
FCSTD TO COOL TO UNDER 12 DEG C ON TUE AS ANOTHER SHRTWV TROF MOVS
OUT OF THE RCKYS BY 00Z WED.  CONCERNED THAT CNVTN WL FIRE UP LT
TUE/TUE NGT...PSBLY A NOCTURNAL EVENT...AND MAY BUMP POPS BACK UP/ADD
THEM BACK IN.  AVN IS THE PREFERED MODEL OF CHOICE THIS FCST PD.
CNVTN MAY BE ONGOING EVEN INTO WED AS THE AVN QPF INDICATES.  MAY
DECIDE TO GO WITH CHC POPS ON WED RATHER THAN SLGT CHC.  SHRTWV FCSTD
TO MOV VERY SLOLY ACRS THE SRN RCKYS TUE NGT AND THEN RMNS OVR NE/ERN
NM BY 18Z WED.

FNTL BNDRY FCSTD TO SLIDE SWD ACRS THE PNHDLS TNGT AS SFC LOW DROPS
SWD INTO THE TX PNHDL.  SFC LOW FCSTD TO BE OVR THE PERMIAN BASIN OF
W TX LT TUE INTO WED AS NE TO SW ORIENTED SFC RDG BUILDS DOWN INTO
THE FA.  THIS WL PROVIDE A GOOD UPSLP FLOW AND ALLOW COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF LO LVL MSTR TO ADVECT INTO THE PNHDLS ALG WITH CAA.  SFC TROF
DVLPS LT WED AND WED NGT ALG THE LEE OF THE RCKYS AND MAY BCM DRYLN
BY THU.  BETTER CHC FOR CNVTN WED EVE/NGT AND AGAIN THU EVE/NGT AS
THE SFC TROF/DRYLN RMNS FM SERN CO INTO ERN NM.  SFC LOW DVLPS ACRS
ERN CO THU NGT AS STRONG SHRTWV DROPS SEWD OUT OF NERN CO INTO KS.
COULD PSBLY SEE ANOTHER MCC DVLP THU NGT/ERY FRI MRNG NR OUR FA.
ANOTHER STRONG SHRTWV FCSTD TO DROPS SEWD OUT OF CO FRI NGT WHICH
MAY SET UP ANOTHER MCC DVLPG OVR THE PNHDLS FRI NGT/SAT MRNG.

UPR FLOW TRANSITIONS FM ZONAL/SWLY TNGT THRU TUE...TO NWLY WED THRU
THE END OF THE WK INTO SAT AS UPR HIGH BUILDS OVR AZ AND NM.  WL
KEEP MENTION OF SLGT CHC POPS IN THE EXTENDED AS CNVTN MAY PROPAGATE
OFF THE MTNS/HIER TRRN OF CO/NM.

PRELIM CCF:

AMA 059/078 055/084 059  0-3
GUY 056/077 053/083 058  -02
DHT 054/076 054/082 057  002

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

SCHNEIDER/SLATTERY/WOLTERS

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-042200-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
117 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2001

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
APPROACH THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO WILL MOVE OVER THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT. A COOL FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BY MORNING. A DRYLINE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE SHOULD MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PANAHNDLES THIS
AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY EVENING MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES AND THE
DRYLINE PUSHES TOWARDS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE.

ACTIVATION OF SPOTTER GROUPS OR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SLATTERY