Damaging Wind in Texas, June 24, 2001

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
300 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2001

THERE HAS NOT BEEN A GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE U.S. SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY.  LARGE UPPER
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS HAS DRIFTED FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH...AND CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF CUTTING-OFF FROM THE MAIN
AXIS OF THE WESTERLIES.  AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS HELPING TO ELONGATE THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION.  SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE
SHOWING A WEAK UPPER WAVE BETWEEN THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND AND DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS.  THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE CWA LATER
THIS EVENING...AND MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
NEAR SEABREEZE FRONT...BUT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO SPARSE TO
MENTION IN THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE ZONES.  UPPER RIDGING IS REALLY
PROGGED TO DOMINATE OVER THE CWA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WITH MOISTURE
PLUME FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS WAS
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.  AT THIS
TIME...WILL LEAVE IN A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS...MAINLY FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE SEABREEZE FRONT.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR SEABREEZE ACTIVITY IS EVEN LESS LIKELY ON
TUESDAY.

UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IS FORECAST BY MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS TO RETROGRADE THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THIS WEEK...AND
EVENTUALLY END UP OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND.  WITH UPPER LEVEL TROFFING IN THE AREA NEXT WEEK AND WITH
AT LEAST ISOLATED SEABREEZE ACTIVITY EXPECTED...WILL GO AHEAD IN LEAVE
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

MARINE...CURRENT OBS FROM BUOY020 INDICATE EAST WINDS AT 4 KNOTS
PRODUCING 2 FOOT SEAS.  THIS TREND OF LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.  OTHER THAN TO DECREASE POPS
...NOT MUCH CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE CWF.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:
BRO BB 075/095 075/095 075  01010
HRL BB 074/096 074/096 074  01010
MFE BB 075/098 075/098 075  01010
RGC BB 074/100 074/100 074  01010
SPI BB 078/088 078/088 078  01010

SYNOPTIC...DD (65) / AVIATION-MARINE...SB (53) / MESO...SM

INTERNET ADDRESS...WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

.BRO...NONE.

TXZ248>251-254-256-250130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
535 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2001

...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE OVER THE
   NORTHERN REACHES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING...

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE PERSISTING OVER DUVAL AND JIM WELLS
COUNTIES THIS EARLY EVENING. THIS CLUSTER WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN REACHES OF JIM HOGG AND BROOKS COUNTIES AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES.

A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE WINDS AROUND 50 MPH...
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...HAIL AND DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
UNTIL 8:30 PM OVER PORTIONS OF ZAPATA...JIM HOGG...BROOKS...AND
NORTHWEST KENEDY COUNTIES.

ONE OR TWO LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS MAY OBTAIN LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
DUE TO ANTICIPATED SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.

STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE
LATEST WEATHER INFORMATIO+N.

CORDERO