Lightning Strike in Florida, June 24, 2001

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
245 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2001

THE RECENT WET PATTERN WHICH HAS PROVIDED MUCH NEEDED...ALBEIT
TEMPORARY...DROUGHT RELIEF WILL COME TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS TO
BEGIN THE WORKWEEK.  UNFORTUNATELY...THE WEEKEND (FRI-SUN) WILL END
UP BEING A WASHOUT FOR MANY.  THE DRY PATTERN WONT LAST LONG
HOWEVER...AS DEEPENING SE TO S FLOW WILL SHIFT PCPN TIMING FROM LATE
NITE/MORNING TO AFTN/EVENING AS THE WEEK GOES ON.

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS PACKAGE.  ALL ARE LIKELY
UNDERPLAYING PCPN POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...PERHAPS DUE TO POOR
HANDLING OF E GULF SSTS...AND HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERING SOLUTIONS
LATER TODAY THROUGH MON.  IN GENERAL...CONTINUED TREND OF SUBSTANTIAL
DEEP LAYER DRYING IS ADVERTIZED BY ALL...WITH THE AVN PERHAPS A BIT
TOO DRY TOO FAR S.  PREFER A BLEND OF THE ETA/NGM ONCE AGAIN.

SHORT TERM:
DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW ALREADY BRINGING SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS ONSHORE AROUND TAMPA BAY.  EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE...AND
AREA TO EXPAND ESPECIALLY S AS H50 REMNANT SHEAR AXIS SAGS S AND
COMBINES WITH GOOD H25 JET DIVERGENCE WHICH CONTINUES AS RR QUAD IS
SLOW TO MOVE.  THE DRY PUNCH IS MAKING GRADUAL INROADS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF...AND EXPECT IMPROVING CONDS FROM N TO S AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.  WILL INTRODUCE SOME AFTN SUNSHINE CENTRAL AND N COAST...
AND BOOST TEMPS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS...BUT STILL UNDER GUIDANCE
AND CLIMO.

THEREAFTER...WILL TWEAK THE GOING FCST THROUGH MON NIGHT DOWN A PCPN
CATEGORY CENTRAL AND N.  LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM SW/W TO N/NW...
ALBEIT LIGHT.  THIS IN RESPONSE TO H50 TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD...AND
DEEP LAYERED DRY POCKET ROTATING THROUGH.  IN FACT...WILL DROP LEVY
OUT OF PCPN MENTION ALTOGETHER TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...AND
LEAVE ONLY ISOLD AFTN/EVE PCPN ELSWHERE ALONG THE N SUNCOAST.

EXTENDED:
REMAINING DRY AIR SHOULD HOLD POP VALUES BELOW CLIMO ON TUES.  BY
WED...THOUGH AVN STILL HANGS ONTO DRY AIR...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
INDICATES A RETURN TO MORE CLIMO PCPN CHANCES AND TIMING (LATE
AFTN/EVE).  NEW AVN IMPLIES DEEPER MOISTURE THU TRENDING TO FRI...
WHICH COULD INCREASE PCPN PROSPECTS FURTHER.  NO SENSE IN
SPECULATING NOW...SO CURR WED-SAT FCST WILL STAND AS IS.

MARINE:  DRY AIR FILTERING DOWN...ESP CENTRAL AND N...MAY KICK
WINDS UP TO THE 10-15 KT RANGE TODAY.  OTHERWISE...WIND GENERALLY 10
KT OR LESS...HIGHER IN TSTMS OF COURSE.  NO HIGHLIGHTS.

FIRE WX:  NO HIGHLIGHTS TODAY.  FOR MON...NOTHING YET...THOUGH WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THE N 1/3 OF THE AREA AS RH MAY APPROACH 35 DURING
THE AFTN.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
TPA TB 085/071/090/073 6121
FMY TB 085/072/090/072 6343

.TBW...NONE.

88/GOLDSMITH

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-241500-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
500 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2001

...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH PORTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...

ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WILL END BEFORE NOON.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND BRIEF
DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

ALONG THE COAST FROM TAMPA BAY TO FORT MYERS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE PRIMARY HAZARD IN STRONGER CELLS WILL BE TORRENTIAL RAINS.
MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE TEMPORARILY REDUCED TO NEAR
ZERO IN STRONGER CELLS.  HIGH STANDING WATER IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
MOMENTS...BUT THE STEADY MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS WILL REDUCE THE
THREAT OF FLOODING.

ACROSS INTERIOR WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR THIS
MORNING.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER NOON.  THOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL RAINS.

IN ALL AREAS...REMEMBER THAT LIGHTNING KILLS. WHEN SKIES
DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG APPLIANCES AND
ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS BEFORE USING THE
TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

MARINERS MAY WISH TO POSTPONE TRIPS UNTIL LATER TODAY WHEN
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

BSG