Flood and Damaging Winds in South Carolina, June 13, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
340 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2001

SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
SUBTROPICAL LOW IN THE VICINITY OF FLORENCE THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING
SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW THIS COMPACT SYSTEM
TRUDGING OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT TO THE NC COASTAL PLAINS...WHERE
IT GRINDS TO A HALT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER NY/NEW ENGLAND AND
BLOCKS ITS ESCAPE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HISTORY OF CRAWLING ALONG SO
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...THUS THE SLOWER ETA SOLUTION IS FAVORED IN
KEEPING THE LOW IN THE PICTURE THROUGH FRIDAY.

MOST OF THE PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF UNION COUNTY NC BY MIDNIGHT OR THEREABOUTS.
IN THE MEAN TIME...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION COUNTY NC WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 8 PM AND MAY BE EXTENDED IF ADDITIONAL RAIN BANDS
WRAP IN FROM CENTRAL NC. WILL GO WITH A LIKELY POP IN THAT
ZONE...WITH CHANCE ELSEWHERE TO HANDLE ONGOING CONVECTION.

BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE
EAST THAT ANY SUBSEQUENT RAIN BANDS THAT DEVELOP WILL REMAIN TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE LOW WILL BE THE
RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE THAT SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY...WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR DEEP CONVECTION.
THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE A TRIGGER MECHANISM. UPPER SUPPORT IS NOT
ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE...BUT NEITHER IS IT UNFAVORABLE. THE MAIN
SUPPORT SUGGESTED BY THE ETA WOULD BE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...OF
VARYING DEGREE...THROUGHOUT THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SUMMERLIKE AS WELL.

LOOKING BRIEFLY AT THE EXTENDED...AVN MOVES SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT THIS IS TOO FAST GIVEN THE STALLING LOW
OVER EASTERN NC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
PREVIOUS IDEA OF FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST THEREAFTER.

FCSTID = 10
GSP   67  90  68  88 /  30  30  30  40
AND   68  90  67  89 /  30  30  30  40
CLT   69  88  69  87 /  50  30  30  40
HKY   67  88  68  88 /  40  30  30  40
AVL   63  86  64  84 /  30  30  30  40

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 PM FOR UNION COUNTY N"CZ082.
SC...NONE.

MOORE

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-132000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1210 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2001

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...DUE TO
LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE...AS AN OLD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE EAST. A SMALL BUT STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY GROW STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS...AND A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN...PERHAPS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS IF
SEVERAL STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE SAME LOCATION. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE STORM OR TWO MOVING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS
INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING.  CONTINUING RAIN AND CLOUDS LATE THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF
THE PIEDMONT...FROM YORK AND UNION SOUTH CAROLINA...TO SOUTH OF
CHARLOTTE...WILL REDUCE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATlHER IN THOSE
LOCATIONS.

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
325 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2001

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

310 PM     20 NW SPARTANBURG         SC   WIND DAMAGE
06/13/01   SPARTANBURG                    FIREFIGHTER REPORTED
                                          TREES DOWN.

JAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
328 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2001

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LO&CATION....

310 PM     4 S COLUMBUS              NC   WIND DAMAGE
06/13/01   POLK                           EOC/SHERIFF REPORTED
                                          TREES DOWN.

JAT