Damaging Wind in Pennsylvania, October 16, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
315 PM EDT TUE OCT 16 2001

SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED COLD FRONT RACING ACROSS THE REGION. A
LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAS FORMED ON THIS LINE...PROMPTING A FEW
WARNINGS AND RESULTING IN REPORTS OF A FEW TREES DOWN IN BLAIR
COUNTY.  STRONG 850 MB JET IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT MIXING WIND
GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH TO THE SURFACE IN SPOTS.  THE LINE REACHED THE
OFFICE AT 3 PM SHARP...BRINGING ALONG A WIND GUST OF 42 MPH REPORTED
ON THE ROOF.  SYSTEM NOW BEGINNING TO RUN OUT AHEAD OF THE BEST
DYNAMICS...BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS STRONG DRY TONGUE
SURGING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

UPPER LOW ALSO PUSHING TOWARD PA WILL BRING A RETURN OF MOISTURE BY
THE LATE EVENING.  TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE LAKES INDICATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR LATER TONIGHT IN THE NW MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.  WITH COLDER AIR FUNNELING IN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS BY SUNRISE.  WINDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG OVERNIGHT AS THE SOUTHERLY JET GIVES WAY TO AN EQUALLY STRONG
W/NW JET THIS EVENING.  GUSTY WINDS OF 20-35 MPH WILL BE COMMON IN
THE WEST WITH THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IN SOME
SPOTS.  SO WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF BY LATE WED
MORNING AND BY THAT TIME SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRAVERSES THE NE STATES...SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.  THESE WILL COME TO AN END WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SW.

THE NEXT WAVE BRUSHES NW PA FRI NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER RESPITE FOR THE
WEEKEND.  NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON THE ENSEMBLES MOVES IN
TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.  EXTENDED TEMPS MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS.

.CTP...WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING FOR THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AND NW MOUNTAINS.

RXR/ROGOWSKI

PAZ005-006-010>012-017>019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-162200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
204 PM EDT TUE OCT 16 2001

...STRONG WINDS GUSTS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...

A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ALONG A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXPECT A SHORT PERIOD OF STRONG...AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
FROM THE WEST AT SPEEDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REACH A LINE FROM
ULYSSES...RENOVO...LEWISTOWN AND CHAMBERSBURG BETWEEN 315 PM AND 345
PM. EXPECT THE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO BEGIN IN PLACES SUCH AS
MANSFIELD...WILLIAMSPORT...SUNBURY...HARRISBURG AND YORK BETWEEN 415
PM AND 5 PM.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS THE LINE OF GUSTY WINDS
CROSSES YOUR AREA. SECURE ANY LOOSE OBJECTS THAT MAY BLOW AROUND
OUTDOORS. TRAVEL IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES WILL BE EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.

AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLOW AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH.

LAMBERT