Ice Storm in Pennsylvania, February 16, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
430 AM EST FRI FEB 16 2001

LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PA
EARLY THIS MORNING.  MOST REPORTING STATIONS IN THIS REGION INDICATE
THAT EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IS OCCURRING.  EXPECT MUCH
OF THE SAME ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA LATER THIS MORNING WHERE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN FIRST.  IF THIS DEVELOPS QUICKLY ENOUGH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, SOME ICING COULD RESULT.  HOWEVER, I AGREE
WITH NWS PHILADELPHIA THAT INTENSITY WILL BE VERY LIGHT AT THE START
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE A CHANCE TO INCH ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT SETS IN.  FURTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL AND
UPSTATE NY, LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE LATER AND SHOULD BE
LIGHTER YET.  WELL GO WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE TWIN TIERS AND CALL
FOR POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE A
CHANGE TO LIGHT RAIN.  ONLY A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET WILL BE
INDICATED IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES.

TONIGHT, STORM CONSOLIDATES AND DEEPENS WELL OFF THE COAST.
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHOULD PULL OFF SHORE THIS EVENING JUST
ABOUT THE TIME COLDER AIR STARTS COMING BACK IN.  ARCTIC FRONT WILL
APPROACH OUR NORTHERN ZONES TOWARDS DAYBREAK, SO WENT WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME ACCUMULATIONS HERE WITH LOWER
CHANCES AS YOU HEAD SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY LOOKS BLUSTERY WITH A STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE
BEHIND DESCENDING ARCTIC BOUNDARY.  WE COULD SEE A QUICK BURST OF
SNOW ABOUT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TWIN TIERS WITH THE FRONT ITSELF.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP UP NORTH THIS PERIOD.
INSTABILITY BECOMES MODERATE AND SHEAR IS LOW, BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS
ALSO DROP IN THE AFTERNOON.  FOR NOW, PLAYED IT AS 2-4 FROM
SYRACUSE DOWN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY IN ROUGHLY A 300 DEGREE
FETCH.  NOTICEABLE ACCUMULATIONS (1-3) COULD ALSO AFFECT NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE SUSQUEHANNA REGION.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT, THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO BACK AND THIS SHOULD
SEND THE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN
ONEIDA AND EVENTUALLY OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

WORK ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT.  THE FINAL PACKAGE WILL BE SHIPPED OUT
SHORTLY.

.BGM...NONE.

JUREWICZ