Damaging Wind in Pennsylvania, August 28, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
245 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2001

FRONTAL SYS MOVG THRU NY/PA ON SCHEDULE. LINE OF TSTM SEEMS TO BE
HOLDING ITS OWN AS WELL AS APPROACHING AREA OF HIGHER DPS. WILL
INCRS POPS TO LIKELY IN THE FAR NORTH...AND GIVE A 50 PCT ELSEWHERE
FOR THE EVENING HOURS. WILL ALSO MENTION FQT LTNG AND HVY
DOWNPOURS...BUT NOT ANY STRONG GUSTY WINDS OR LARGE HAIL UNLESS
WATCH IS ISSUED FOR PART OF FA. SUMMER TSTMS ALWAYS IMPLY A CHANCE
OF GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL. CLRG SKIES SHLD MOVE IN AFTR INCLEMENT
WX DURING THE OVRNGT.

NEXT CHC SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE CENTERED ON SAT AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES THRU FM THE N. THIS FRONT ALSO PROGGED TO MOVE THRU THEN
WELL S...SO NO STALLING AROUND WITH THIS ONE EITHER.

OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER THRU THE PERIOD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
FLUCTUATING AROUND THE NORM.

FCSTID = 13
MPO   57  74  54  75 /  60   0   0  10
ABE   60  77  57  78 /  60   0  10  10
RDG   60  77  57  78 /  60   0  10  10
PHL   67  83  62  83 /  50   0  10   0
12N   60  77  57  78 /  60   0  10  10
SMQ   66  82  60  81 /  50   0  10   0
TTN   66  82  60  81 /  50   0  10   0
MIV   66  82  60  83 /  50  10  10   0
ACY   66  82  61  79 /  50  10  10  10
ILG   66  82  61  83 /  50   0  10   0
DOV   68  82  63  84 /  50  10  10   0
GED   68  81  64  84 /  50  10  10  10
ESN   68  82  63  84 /  50  10  10   0

.PHI...
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
PA...NONE.

WOODWORTH

NJZ001-007>010-012-PAZ054-055-061-062-290000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1155 AM EDT TUE AUG 28 2001

...SOME ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS PLACED
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE POCONOS IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL NEW
YORK STATE INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS
REMAIN FAIRLY LOW FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THESE REGIONS...THE
UPPER ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS IN COMBINATION WITH THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE OUT AND
GENERATE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
BE THE MOST DOMINATE FEATURE WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT
HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE DELAWARE VALLEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING. THESE AREAS ARE NOT IN THE
SLIGHT RISK REGION. HOWEVER...SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE MUCH HIGHER
THAN IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE A BETTER CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS AS WELL AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/PHI IN SMALL LETTERS.

WOODWORTH