Tornado and Flood in Oklahoma, September 7, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
310 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2001

THE FESTIVITIES ARE BEGINNING ALREADY WITH ECHOES DEVELOPING ALONG
THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN KANSAS AND TOWERING CU VISIBLE OUT THE
WINDOW.  18Z SOUNDING SHOWED GOOD CAPPING WITH 22C AT 850 MB.  SO
THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
CONVECTION IS A GOOD BET IN THE NORTH WITH THE WAVE APPROACHING AND
ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COOLING.  CHANCES ARE A BIT MORE IFFY IN
THE SOUTHWEST AND THEREFORE WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS THERE.  WITH
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE... CHANCE POPS ARE ALSO STILL NEEDED IN THE POST-FRONTAL
NORTHWEST ZONES.  WILL MENTION SEVERE IN THE ZONES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

THERE ARE PLUS AND MINUSES FOR RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW.  THERE MAY BE
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING... BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE
AREA WILL BE BETWEEN UPPER SYSTEMS AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF
TONIGHTS WAVE WILL ALLOW A RESPITE.  HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT THE
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA AND THERE MAY BE EXTRA CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARIES IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD AS WELL.  SO AM CONCERNED THAT
BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE STRONGER WITH THE SECONDARY WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT... AND AGREE WITH MID SHIFT ASSESSMENT THAT
PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXTEND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE SECOND WAVE
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.  FARTHER DOWN THE LINE... NO CHANGES WILL BE
MADE TO THE EXTENDED.

...SPEG.
OKC   65  84  60  74 /  60  30  40  40
HBR   62  83  58  74 /  50  30  40  40
SPS   66  89  62  77 /  40  30  50  40
GAG   54  75  52  70 /  40  30  40  30
PNC   63  80  58  73 /  80  30  40  40
DUA   69  87  67  77 /  60  40  60  40

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-071930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
100 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2001

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

A MID-LEVEL STORM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS EARLY THIS EVENING. AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...THE ASSOCIATED DRYLINE WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW INTO
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND WEST FROM THE
SURFACE LOW. AS AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS COOLS AND SURFACE AIR WARMS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP.

STORMS MAY INITIALLY BE ISOLATED FROM OTHER STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTH. THROUGH THE EVENING...HOWEVER...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL LINE FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN THEN
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE LINE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AS THE INDIVIDUAL
STORMS IN THE LINE MOVE QUICKLY EAST OR NORTHEAST.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER GROUPS IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SHOULD PREPARE FOR ACTIVATION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.