Tornado and Hail in Kansas, September 7, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
327 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2001

IMPENDING SEVERE WEATHER OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN...WITH LINGERING
PRECIP AND TEMPERATURES BEYOND.  QUITE VIGOROUS AND POTENT UPPER
SYSTEM CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE AREA WITH SFC FRONT AT THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA.  LATEST MESO-ANALYS SHOWING ATMOS RATHER
UNSTABLE...AND WILL REMAIN SO.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND TREK EWD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS INITIAL WAVE
ROTATES THROUGH.  NGM IS MUCH WEAKER ON THIS INITIAL WAVE...WITH
AVN/ETA MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED AND THIS SOLN IS PREFERRED.

SFC FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ACRS S CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES.  WILL RETAIN
HIGHER POPS IN THESE AREAS.  WILL ALSO RETAIN SVR MENTION AT LEAST
THROUGH EVENING HOURS.

SOME QUESTION ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.  INITIAL SYSTEM
TO MOVE NEWD AND WEAKEN IN ADVANCE OF SECONDARY SYSTEM TO THE NW.
MAY HAVE REPRIEVE FROM WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING
IN.  WILL CONTINUE SOME LINGERING SHRA/TSRA...WHICH SHOULD END
EARLY IN THE DAY. GUIDANCE NUMBERS QUITE DISPARATE FOR MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY.  MAY SEE SOME SUN DURING THE DAY...WHICH SHOULD HELP TEMPS
TO REBOUND.  FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FWC/MAV
NUMBERS.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SECONDARY SYSTEM TO APPROACH IN RATHER ACTIVE NW
FLOW...AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.  MODELS SHOW
BROAD AREA OF LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLDER AIR ACCOMPANYING IT.  H85 TEMPS DROP INTO SINGLE DIGITS BY 48
HRS AND EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE THE COOLER DAY IN THE WEEKEND.  WILL
ADJUST TEMPS ACCORDINGLY.

IN THE EXTENDED...SECOND SYSTEM TO EXIT THE REGION WITH SOME
LINGERING PRECIP INTO MONDAY.  WEAK RIDGING EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE
INTO MIDWEEK...IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING TROF.  THIS PERIOD SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPS.  BY THE END OF THE WEEK...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS DEPICT TROF APPROACHING WEST COAST WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL.  MRF DRAGS S/WV ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS AND WILL
NOT INTRODUCE ANY PRECIP ATTM.

FCSTID = 16
ICT   59  78  55  71 /  80  30  40  40
HUT   58  76  51  70 /  80  30  40  40
EWK   58  75  53  69 /  80  30  40  40
EQA   59  76  54  70 /  80  30  40  40
WLD   61  78  55  71 /  80  30  40  40
RSL   53  69  50  65 /  70  20  40  40
GBD   55  70  51  66 /  70  20  40  40
SLN   58  72  52  67 /  70  20  40  40
MPR   57  73  52  67 /  70  20  40  40
CFV   65  81  58  74 /  80  40  50  50
CNU   64  80  58  73 /  80  40  50  50
K88   63  79  57  72 /  80  40  50  50

.ICT...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-080500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1230 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2001

THE FOLLOWING IS A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR PORTIONS OF
OF CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THE SYNOPSIS:
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS RESIDES.

AS OF NOON...A COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS...AND WAS POSITIONED FROM JUST NORTH OF SALINA TO GREAT
BEND...TO DODGE CITY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST...REACHING A LINE FROM HARPER TO WICHITA...TO MARION BY
7 PM...AND THEN WILL PUSH GRADUALLY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 2 PM AND 4
PM...ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM KINGMAN TO NEWTON...TO
MARION. THE STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE BY 5
OR 6 PM...WITH THE LINE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING. THE GREATEST RISK AREA
FOR SEVERE WEATHER...APPEARS TO BE SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WHERE
THE COMBINATION OF WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE THE HIGHEST.
GOLFBALL OR LARGER HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS POSSIBLE THERE. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED.

ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL UP TO
GOLFBALL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO
TRANSITION TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

CARUSO

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-080500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1247 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2001

THE FOLLOWING IS A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR PORTIONS OF
OF CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THE SYNOPSIS:
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS RESIDES.

AS OF NOON...A COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS...AND WAS POSITIONED FROM JUST NORTH OF SALINA TO GREAT
BEND...TO DODGE CITY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST...REACHING A LINE FROM HARPER TO WICHITA...TO MARION BY
7 PM...AND THEN WILL PUSH GRADUALLY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 2 PM AND 4
PM...ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM KINGMAN TO NEWTON...TO
MARION. THE STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE BY 5
OR 6 PM...WITH THE LINE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING. THE GREATEST RISK AREA
FOR NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
THE HIGHEST. HAIL TO GOLFBALL SIZE OR LARGER AND DAMAGING WINDS OF
60 TO 80 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE
MAINLY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.

ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL UP TO
GOLFBALL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO
TRANSITION TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

CARUSO

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-070940-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
340 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2001

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA IS ACTIVATING OUR
SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORK.

A SKYWARN OPERATOR IS MONITORING AREA NETWORKS.

THE PRIMARY SKYWARN FREQUENCY IS 444.0 MHZ.

EMERGENCY TRAFFIC WILL BE ON 146.82 MHZ.

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