Hail in Oklahoma, March 23, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
315 PM CST FRI MAR 23 2001

FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS WILL BE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG SOUTH OF INVERTED TROF OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. MUCAPES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SEVERE CONVECTION. CURRENT SLIGHT RISK AREA INDICATED BY SWODY1
FROM SPC AND OUR OKCSPSOKC PRODUCT STILL LOOKS GOOD AND CAN BE
REFERENCED FOR PERTINENT INFORMATION.

STRONG COLD FRONT STILL PROGD TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING/AROUND MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY MORNING SATURDAY. SATURDAY
WILL BE A MUCH DIFFERENT DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CONTRASTS FROM THIS AFTERNOON. FAIRLY STRONG
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COLDER. BEST PRECIP
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE AHEAD AND JUST BEHIND COLD FRONT...WITH THE
LOWEST POPS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN 1/3RD OF OKLAHOMA...HIGHEST
POPS SOUTH. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS MAINLY NORTH AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...DRIZZLE MAY BE ABOUT THE ONLY THING THAT CAN BE SQUEEZED
OUT. THREAT OF FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP APPARENT ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHWEST ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BUT AMOUNTS WILL
BE INSIGNIFICANT. WITH TEMP FORECAST...MUST INCLUDE MIX WORDING
THERE.

FOR REST OF FORECAST...CURRENT PACKAGE IS BELOW GUIDANCE AT MOST
LOCATIONS ON TEMPS AND WE THINK THIS IS THE BEST AVENUE WITH STRONG
FRONT COMING IN. LESS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER NORTH
CENTRAL SECTIONS LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT WILL STILL KEEP
TEMPS COOL...AOB MOS GUIDANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH LOW WAVE TROF STAYING OVER OR JUST WEST OF FORECAST AREA.
MRF AND EURO MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY AT MID WEEK...MAINLY WITH
SURFACE FEATURES. WILL STICK WITH OPERATIONAL MRF WITH SUPPORTIVE
ENSEMBLES.
WILL LEAVE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DRY.

FCSTID = 11

PRELIMINARY CCF NUMBERS...
OKC   44  49  35  50 /  40  40  10  20
HBR   43  48  34  50 /  60  60  10  20
SPS   49  52  37  52 /  60  70  10  10
GAG   36  41  30  46 /  40  20  30  30
PNC   38  45  32  47 /  20  10  30  30
DUA   52  58  36  54 /  80  60  20  10

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-240300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
630 PM CST FRI MAR 23 2001

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE ROUGHLY FROM
MANGUM... TO PAULS VALLEY... TO HOLDENVILLE.  THE PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE LARGE HAIL. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS
THIS EVENING WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN FAR WESTERN TEXAS
AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS THIS
EVENING.  IF THESE STORMS HOLD TOGETHER INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...
THEY COULD AFFECT PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BEGINNING LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AGAIN... LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT... AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.  THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER THE STORMS MOVING
EASTWARD FROM WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY INTO THE
NIGHT.

IN ADDITION... A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
KANSAS THIS EVENING WILL ENTER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS MOST OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS BY SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING.  MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND GUSTY NORTH EAST WINDS FROM 15 TO 30 MPH CAN BEL EXPECTED AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

 MILLER

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
724 PM CST FRI MAR 23 2001

TIME (CST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0724 PM    4 &W DAVIS                 OK   .88 INCH HAIL
03/23/01   MURRAY                         PUBLIC REPORT

KT