Hail and Damaging Winds in Oklahoma, June 4 to 5, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2001

REMAINS OF SFC FNT WHICH PUSHED INTO NWRN SECS OF THE FA OVERNIGHT
AND ERLY THIS MRNG STILL EVIDENT ON MESONET DATA THIS AFTN.  WARM
FRONT HAS LIFTED NWD INTO SRN KS. DRY LINE ALSO EXTENDS FROM SW TX
INTO FAR SWRN OK. 12Z UA DATA SHOWED AREA STILL WELL CAPPED ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SIGNS THIS MAY BE CHANGING. S/W MOVING EWD OUT OF CO MAY
GENERATE ENUF LIFT TO HELP WEAKEN THE CAP ALLOWING TSTMS TO DEVELOP
IN THE VCNTY OF THE SFC BNDRYS. WITH AMS ONCE AGAIN XTRMLY
UNSTABLE...ANYTHING THAT GOES WUD LIKELY BECOME SVR. WILL GO AHEAD
AND INCLUDE POPS FOR CNTRL AND WRN SECS FOR TONIGHT. MAIN UPR TROF
GRDLY WORKS ITS WAY EWD N OF THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A SERIES
OF WEAK S/W BRUSHING THE AREA. WITH MID LVL TMPS NOT AS WARM AND SFC
BNDRYS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA...WILL CONT WITH CHC CAT POPS
INTO WEDNESDAY. SFC BNDRY SHUD PUSH S OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY MRNG
WITH UPR RDG BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA.

FCSTID = 2
OKC   70  87  65  80 /  10  10  40  30
HBR   71  92  67  87 /  10  10  30  30
SPS   71  92  67  87 /  10  10  30  30
GAG   63  85  60  78 /  20  30  40  30
PNC   70  86  64  78 /  30  30  40  30
DUA   73  90  70  87 /  10  10  30  30

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-042030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
100 PM CDT MON JUN 04 2001

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE SLIGHT RISK IS WEST OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD...TO
WATONGA...TO LAWTON...TO WICHITA FALLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

A LAYER OF WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH HAS PREVENTED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS FORECAST TO COOL
SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEAKENING THE
CAP. A DRY LINE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
AT MIDDAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TO NEAR THE OKLAHOMA TEXAS BORDER
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE DRY LINE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL APPROACH 100 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF THE MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AFTERNOON HEATING AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CREATE A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE
TO BREAK THE CAP AND DEVELOP THEY WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER GROUPS [ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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