Hail in Oklahoma, June 21, 2001

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
355 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2001

MUCH EASIER FORECAST THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. CLEAR/DRY WX EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FEW PERIODS. MODELS SHOWING SOME RETURN FLOW AND EVEN
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OK FRI NIGHT BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
STAY WEST OF THE AREA.

NEW AVN SHOWS UPR LOW CLOSING OFF THE ERN U.S. GRADUALLY
RETROGRADING WITH TIME THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BECOMING A HIGH OVER
LOW BLOCK. SHOULD NOT SEE PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPR LOW AS
IT APPROACHES CWA BUT MAY TEMPER WARMUP FROM GETTING TOO WARM. ECMWF
AND MRF LOOK SIMILAR. THIS PATTERN COULD BE QUITE PERSISTENT AS
STRONGER WESTERLIES ARE NOW FURTHER NORTH THAN THIS LATITUDE. COULD
SEE AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD WITH NORMAL TEMPS. WILL PROBABLY REMOVE
POPS FOR WED AND NOT ADD ANY FOR THURS. ONLY HOPE FOR PRECIP MIGHT
BE IF A TROPICAL WAVE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTH INTO AR. LAST
TROPICAL SYSTEM (ALLISON) STAYED SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH ONLY LIGHT
SHRA OVER THE FAR SE ZONES. WILL NOT ADD POPS THIS PACKAGE.

FCSTID = 26
TUL   59  84  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   60  84  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   60  85  59  88 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   55  83  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   52  80  50  85 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   52  80  50  85 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   56  80  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   59  84  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
F10   59  84  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   60  85  59  88 /  10   0   0   0

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
103 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0505 AM    4 W JAY                   OK    WIND DAMAGE
06/21/01   DELAWARE                        TREES DOWN (PUBLIC)

0510 AM    4 E LEACH                 OK    WIND DAMAGE
06/21/01   DELAWARE                        TREES DOWN (HIGHWAY DEPT)

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-221100-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
105 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2001

...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM BRISTOW OKLAHOMA TO BENTONVILLE ARKANSAS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS BY THIS EVENING.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 6 PM.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DISCUSSION...
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND A LACK OF UPPER FORCING WILL PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION.