Hail in Oklahoma, June 20, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
244 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2001

RATHER STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF CONTS TO DIG SEWD THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DVLPG IN
SE CO/NE NM AS FORCING FOR UVV BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY AXIS EAST OF MOUNTAINS.  CURRENT WV/IR SAT LOOPS HINT
THAT WINDS ALOFT ON BACK SIDE OF DIGGING TROF ARE A BIT STRONGER
THAN THE LATEST ETA/RUC GUIDANCE HAVE FORECASTED.  FAIRLY DECENT
INSTABILITY AXIS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND NORTH OF QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SNAKING ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN OK. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THRU THE
EVENING/OVERNITE..BUT FEEL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE AREA
OVERNITE TONITE.  LIMITING FACTORS FOR SVR SEEM TO BE INSTABILITY
AND RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL INFLOW.  HOWEVER..IF AN MCS BECOMES
HIGHLY ORGANIZED AND MOVES RAPIDLY SEWD..MCS RELATIVE INFLOW WILL BE
MAXIMIZED AND SVR WIND POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FARTHER EAST. WILL STILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF SRN OK/NTEX FOR THU ALONG TRAILING
PART OF MCS/FRONT.  HOWEVER..LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUBSIDENCE
WILL SPREAD OVR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
WITH LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLOGENESIS OVR SW KS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR 24 TO 36
HOURS BEFORE MODIFYING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND.
NEXT CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED PRECIP AFTER THE FIRST AND SECOND PERIODS
APPEARS TO BE TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.
 MILLER

1ST CUT AT NUMBERS..
OKC   66  80  62  84 /  70  30  10   0
HBR   66  83  62  87 /  50  40  10  10
SPS   68  85  63  89 /  40  40  10  10
GAG   57  77  55  84 /  80  20  10  10
PNC   61  79  58  84 /  80  20  10   0
DUA   70  86  64  85 /  40  50  10  10

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.